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ISRAEL IRAN WAR - Netanyahu has finally executed what he has been itching to do for many years—attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and army installations and decapitating many of its military commanders and nuclear scientists. Even though Trump first appeared to have distanced himself from the Israeli operation, there is simply no doubt that he gave the green light to it, without which Netanyahu would not have dared to make such a move that may well draw the US into the fray and plunge the entire region into a war, potentially with horrific ramifications.
Trump and Netanyahu developed a strategy whereby the United States would deny any involvement in Israel’s decision to attack Iran. They warned Tehran, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated: “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”
On Wednesday, Trump expressed misgivings about reaching a negotiated agreement during the sixth round of negotiations between US and Iranian representatives scheduled for next Sunday in Qatar. By that time, he was already aware of Netanyahu's pending attack. Although many high-ranking Democrats and Republicans repudiated Netanyahu for daring to take such an ominous action when another round of talks was set, they appear oblivious to what was agreed upon behind the scenes between Trump and Netanyahu.
Netanyahu would attack, and the US would distance itself to prevent Iran from attacking American military targets in the region, knowing that Iran would want to avoid a direct confrontation with the US. The US, however, would come to Israel's defense by intercepting incoming ballistic missiles.
Trump’s response to the attack on his Truth Social site says it all, threatening further attacks unless Iran accepts a nuclear deal. In a lengthy post, he stated:
"I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated... Certain Iranian hardliner’s [sic] spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."
Furthermore, Trump also described the Israeli attack as “excellent” in an ABC interview and cautioned that “there’s more to come – a lot more,” unless Iran agrees to a deal.
The problem here is that, regardless of how weak Iran is as a result of Israel's successful campaign to diminish Iran’s axis of resistance, Hezbollah and Hamas, and their shattered air defense systems as a result of Israel’s attack a few months ago, Iran still retains a formidable military power and is not about to surrender. To suggest that the Ayatollah will resume negotiations after being humiliated is foolish.
Iran will not succumb and will retaliate against Israel, and regardless of the extent of damage and destruction it will sustain, Iran will want to preserve their pride, and for that, it will be more than willing to sacrifice a great deal more. The Iranian people, who largely detest their regime, will now rally behind it as they view the Israeli attack with the support of the US as only humiliating, but it will further worsen the economic condition in the country, from which they have already been suffering.
Another outcome of the Israel-US miscalculation is that the attack has only strengthened the voices of many Iranian hardline officials who oppose negotiations with the US in the first place. They had serious doubts about the US’s real intentions, and now they feel vindicated as it became increasingly clear that Trump has given the blessing to Netanyahu.
Moreover, although the Arab Gulf states may quietly cheer the destruction that Israel inflicted on Iran, they are now in a state not only of apprehension but fear that they may be dragged into a war they do not want. Any regional war will have major economic ramifications, which set back their economic development, which they prize the most, and especially their concerns over the disruption of their oil exports, which is the beating heart of their economies.
Israel’s attack on Iran with US support will further push Iran into Russia’s and China’s arms. For these two countries, it is a heaven-sent development and they will spare no effort to capitalize on it and squeeze all the geostrategic benefits at the expense of the US in particular.
Finally, even if Israel manages to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities, which is unlikely, it will only be a matter of time for it to rebuild and resume its nuclear program, except this time it will do so even with greater vigor and determination to produce nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran would more than likely withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and open the door to regional nuclear proliferation, which successive US administrations wanted to avoid.
Trump and Netanyahu seem to have forgotten that Iran is a regional powerhouse with a population of 90 million, has enormous natural and human resources, enjoys a crucial geostrategic location, and a rich history that endows it with a unique regional presence. Even after suffering a devastating war, Iran will emerge again as a major power that Trump and Netanyahu must reckon with. Iran is here to stay, and Israel and the US will have to live with it.
Regardless of how the current hostilities end, the long-term solution to Iran’s nuclear program is at the negotiating table. Trump's desire to reach a quick solution to show some success, especially after having failed to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, might have doomed the negotiations with Iran.
And Netanyahu, who is politically beleaguered at home and has been itching to attack Iran and wants to emerge as a hero, decided to exploit Iran’s weakness without carefully considering that the price that Israel might have to pay later will far outweigh what he might have gained today.
(Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for
Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.)
[email protected] Web: www.alonben-meir.com
