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ACCORDING TO LIZ - Starting Wednesday, Rome’s celebrated Sistine Chapel will host one of the most consequential papal balloting in modern history.
Will the progressive and inclusive approach of Pope Francis continue? Or will the old guard that has kept the Catholic hierarchy in the Dark Ages for decades claw back his advances?
Although only 135 of the 252 current members of the College of Cardinals – those under 80 –are eligible to vote for the successor to the Holy See and 108 of them were elevated to their position by Francis, there are no guarantees for the outcome.
Cardinals can be created for political reasons to appease dissident camps in the church bureaucracy, Cardinals’ opinions can evolve over time, alliances between them can form and reform.
Furthermore, while they cannot vote, Cardinals aged 80 and above are still in the running. In fact, any Catholic male who is capable of receiving priestly ordination and episcopal consecration may be elected, even those who do not wear the red robes.
While these elder statesmen can’t barter votes to garner support, their political acumen and promises for future powers can sway those who can. And, at divisive moments, there is a certain allure in electing someone other than a 66-year-old, someone more likely to be replaced in months or years than in decades.
It’s an elaborate dance of ever-shifting partners and, unlike Trump and Wall Street, the church’s millennia-long history encourages a farsighted view, of cautionary and lateral advance building a base for the future. One that has historically given unknowns opportunities as caretaker or interim leaders. Although not always with the expected results.
Though Francis faced fierce resistance from strident conservatives and a distinct lack of support for his pathway and policies from those in the Catholic hierarchy, none could deny the worldwide respect and especially the love of the common people he garnered throughout his papacy.
Love and the desire to be loved are powerful emotions, used by religions throughout history.
Sharp divisions over inclusive versus doctrinaire views, transformation aligned against age-old traditions, and the church's global direction will dominate discussions over the coming days.
Candidates’ age and health and country of origin will be parsed alongside local and Vatican politics. A convoluted assessment of the relative strengths and schisms of potential alliances, for their congregants as well as in jockeying for personal advancement.
Between the progressive bookends of John XXIII and Francis, the Catholic Church may not have been best-served by a series of compromise popes.
It was not until the election of John Paul II in 1978 that the centuries-long Italian hold on the papacy ended. Since then, and especially today, the field of contenders has broadened considerably.
Hanging over many of the faithful around the world is the imaginary depiction of selecting a new pope in last year’s political thriller Conclave.
Among the current candidates are progressive Italians like the film’s Cardinal Bellini, and staunch conservatives-at-all-costs such as its Cardinal Tedesco intent upon returning the leadership of the Church to Italy and rolling back reforms to embrace a more regulated and authoritarian rule.
There are two francophone Canadians among those floated as front-runners, although they appear quite the opposite of Cardinal Tremblay, the Machiavellian French-Canadian.
The fictional Cardinal Adeyemi is from Africa where bribery and extortion can be another way of doing good business – why should the Vatican be any different? Several of the candidates-in-waiting from the Dark Continent echo his severely orthodox views on gays and women; hopefully not his lapses in personal morality.
Cardinal Benitez, the unknown understudy from the wings in the movie is the compromise candidate but could reflect, at least to the degree, several current lesser-knowns in the running from the third world.
For a flavor of the real Cardinals under consideration, read on:
• Canadian Cardinal Czerny, 78, is a Jesuit from the same order as Francis, one known for its charitable and missionary work around the world, is popular with progressives, and heads the Vatican's Dicastery for Promoting Human Integral Development.
In an interview with the New York Times, Czerny addressed the split between the Cardinals:
“The terrible danger is, if you make [unity] your obsession, and if you try to promote unity as your primary objective, you end up with uniformity, and this is exactly what we don’t need. We spent decades now trying to learn to get beyond uniformity to a true catholicity, a true pluralism… It’s interesting the words (unity and uniformity) are so close, but the difference is huge. I think one is the kiss of death, and the other is life and abundant life.”
• Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, of the Philippines is also on the progressive, pastoral and diversity spectrum. He represents a continent where the Church continues to expand and could become the first Asian pope. Known as a good communicator and teacher, he has spoken out against fellow clerics’ criticism of unwed mothers, divorced people, and the LGTBQ+ community.
• Archbishop Charles Maung Bo of Yangon, 76, the first cardinal from Myanmar and a defender of human rights in a country under military rule, wants reforms instigated by Pope Francis to continue. In an e-mail to CNN, he expressed his belief that the next pope must “pursue peace without pause,” be a voice of moral authority calling “humanity back from the edge of destruction,” and “[t]he world urgently needs a new breath of hope” choosing “life over death, hope over despair.”
• Mario Grech, 68, of Malta, secretary general of the Synod of Bishops which has expanded the diversity of the church, under Pope Francis evolved from a primarily conservative Cardinal to one calling on the Church to be more accepting of others.
• Archbishop Reinhard Marx of Munich and Freising, 71, is a strong proponent of electing a pope to continue in the footsteps of Francis. He was a key adviser to the late Pope, dealing with the crises of Vatican finance reform and response to ongoing sexual abuse scandals. His liberal views on celibacy, homosexuality and women’s ordination have increased opposition by conservatives who feel he threatens their belief in church unity.
• Archbishop Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg is another progressive voice in the Church but, at 66, may find it hard to attract the votes of an old guard intent upon maintaining control over the future.
• Secretary of State for the Vatican, the Italian Pietro Parolin, 70, has won the respect of many for his astute negotiation skills and international diplomacy expertise but lacks pastoral experience and, more importantly, the charisma and engagement with lay Catholics that are hallmarks of the exceptional leader the Church now needs. His support comes from those calling for unity and moderation even as he strives to resolve conflicts around the world as well as within.
• Chicago-born Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, 69, who worked for many years as a missionary in Peru, is seen as representing both the United States and Latin America. And being an exceptionally strong choice to face down the competing challenges of Donald Trump and the American ultra-conservative religious right movements seeking to remake the world in black and white. Prevost was charged by Francis to oversee the selection of the next generation of bishops boosting his name-value in Rome, however allegations he aided in covering up claims of sexual abuse may be a drawback.
• A second Canadian, Cardinal Marc Ouellet, 80, reportedly shortlisted for Pope in 2005 and 2013, may have another chance starting Wednesday although, due to his age, he is ineligible to vote. A conservative opposed to same-sex marriages and the ordination of women as deacons, he holds more cosmopolitan views on other matters making him a compromise choice, and one more likely to be replaced sooner than later. Ouellet may have an edge from his years running the Vatican's Dicastery for Bishops which selects candidates for the Catholic hierarchy from around the world.
• Cardinal Péter Erdő, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, 72, is another leading contender with strong support from conservative cardinals. Respected as a serious theologian, scholar and educator, Erdő speaks six languages, is a proponent of doctrinal orthodoxy and a traditional family structure, and champions conservative positions on issues such as abortion, divorce, refugees, and LGBTQ+ concerns. Given that Hungary’s authoritarian government subsidizes Christian churches, while Erdő assured Frances he supports humanitarian assistance to migrants in need, he stopped short of anything that could be construed as opposing Viktor Orbán’s policies.
• African Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, of Guinea, is a conservative contender. Strongly opposing the progressivism of Pope Francis, he called abortion the tragedy of our times, acknowledging same-sex relationships heretical, and the Church a bastion against the twin threats of Western and Islamic radicals.
• Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is an African Franciscan who led the opposition to the blessing of same-sex unions and has a strong following among conservative Cardinals.
• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, is the Italian-born and raised Patriarch of Jerusalem. His understanding of Israelis and Palestinians and the ongoing war in Gaza is respected in this era of crisis in the Middle East. His relatively young age and inexperience as a cardinal count against him but he has support from some conservatives due to his avoidance of divisive doctrinal issues as well as followers of Francis for his support of interfaith dialogue and his advocacy for peace.
Alternatively, despite the eminent expertise of the foregoing, should the Cardinals heed Trump’s Truth Social post in the wake of his losing the Canadian election and dub him pope? After all he is male… although not Catholic and, having toughed out multiple affairs and marriages, incapable of receiving priestly ordination.
(Liz Amsden is a former Angeleno who now resides in Vermont and is a regular contributor to CityWatch on issues that she is passionate about. She can be reached at [email protected].)
