CommentsGELFAND’S WORLD--If the big earthquake hits, do you know where you would go to get food, water, or medical attention? Most of us don't. At a more proactive level, have you stocked the equipment, food, and water that you might need to survive? This is where the sense of urgency comes in.
We have been discussing these issues at the Neighborhood Council Emergency Preparedness Alliance (NCEPA) for the better part of a year. We've heard from many experts in the field, and we have some conclusions to present for your consideration.
We find that most Angelenos are not yet sufficiently prepared to deal effectively with a real disaster scenario. We find that the government agencies that form the set of first responders -- the LAPD, LAFD, and LASD along with the emergency command structure -- are well trained and well prepared. What's been missing in the equation is the rest of us. For some reason, our government hasn't done a good job of creating a process in which the first responders will seamlessly interface with the remaining 3,900,000 inhabitants of Los Angeles.
We think that there is a way forward and that there is room for optimism.
We've been developing some ideas that involve using our already-in-place community organizations. We intend to deliver a workable plan to our 96 neighborhood councils, this in the hope that each will be the point of crystallization for effective local response preparation. We expect the neighborhood councils to recruit their neighborhood watch organizations and other local groups to provide the focal points for training and organizing.
In theory, this should not be very difficult. What we've found is that training programs already exist. Systems for organizing an area as small as a single block (or even an apartment building) have been worked out. The 5-Steps program is one such approach that shows some promise. What has not been worked out is how to motivate the thousands of small areas in our city of four million people so that they will get started.
Here's a bit of good news. What we've learned is that your own effort on the individual level need not be all that extreme. There is a training program called CERT that the LAFD developed starting in 1985. It requires 17 hours and teaches you the basics of evaluating injuries in yourself and your family, and teaches you about evaluating your immediate area for human injuries and structural damage. CERT training will make it possible for you to respond to a disaster in coordination with others, on an organized basis.
Hold that thought and consider this sobering consideration: In the event of a big earthquake, the authorities are more likely to provide immediate help to areas that have a working disaster response organization. That's because, in the first few hours, the LAPD and LAFD won't have time to evaluate every damaged structure in the search for the injured. But if you have a local response group, it will have evaluated the area, learned what injuries exist, and communicated this information to the professionals.
Why will help go preferentially to areas with organization? You have to consider the challenge that will be facing the professional first responders in a situation which involves damage to tens of thousands of structures and injuries to hundreds or perhaps thousands of people. Simply put, the fire department and the police will be busy. They won't have time to poke through all the damaged structures right away. But if your response group has reported specific injuries to the appropriate listening post, the helpers will at least know where to go.
Here's what the CERT website says about your vulnerability:
It is important to know, if a major disaster occurs, the LAFD, paramedics, police…WILL NOT COME! They will be deployed FIRST to major incidents such as collapsed buildings. That is why you constantly hear…You MUST be prepared to take care of yourself. In the CERT course they say…“The Greatest Good for the Greatest Number of People.” When you are trained, you are far more equipped to deal with your circumstances without needing aid from outside sources.
That's pretty blunt. But if the people of Los Angeles begin to take emergency preparedness seriously, we can become the solution to the problem.
Here is a preliminary summary of the overall NCEPA plan. We will visit the 96 neighborhood councils and discuss what they need to do in order to get their inhabitants organized at the micro level. We will provide training materials and specific instructions. We will leave the geographical analysis to the locals. We figure that each neighborhood council has knowledge of the specific neighborhoods, organizations, and neighborhood watch programs within their boundaries. It will be up to the locals to figure out how to subdivide their own responsibilities, and it will be up to NCEPA and the city government to provide teachers, instruction manuals, and lists of items that individuals and neighborhood councils should stockpile.
One issue came up in our most recent discussion. Right now, the CERT program is administered by the LAFD and recruits trainers from within its own ranks. We believe that it would be possible to develop CERT trainers who are not fire fighters. This would help to fill the gap in the needed number of trainers. If only five percent of the population of Los Angeles were to have CERT training, that would amount to about two-hundred thousand people. The current system of trainers and classes is orders of magnitude short of that capability. This is essentially a political problem, in that the city is fully capable of developing the required number of trainers and classes should it so choose.
NCEPA will have one additional request to make. The idea of making nearly 4 million people a part of disaster preparedness is an ambitious idea. We will expect the city to think about budgetary requirements. If the city were to set aside a mere one-tenth of one percent of the annual budget for the emergency preparedness process, that would amount to something like five million dollars. This would be more than enough to create dozens of new CERT trainers, to print training materials, and to send city employees to local meetings.
Here is one way to imagine a scenario in which we succeed. Think of a block consisting of single family homes, and imagine that there are two CERT trained people living on that block. The two trained people will talk to each other, and out of that process, they will become motivated to bring the block's families together. The whole block will become aware of what they need to do to prepare, and how they can deal with an unexpected disaster.
There are obviously other possible scenarios for successful disaster preparedness on a citywide basis. It is our job to consider the possible scenarios, find the best ones, and to work with the city's professionals to make them happen.
Addendum: Most of the ideas and findings expressed here come from the participants in the numerous NCEPA meetings. We have Mary Garcia to thank for pointing out that we need to communicate the urgency of preparedness to our city.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
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LA Needs to Develop a Sense of Urgency about Emergency Preparedness
