CommentsGELFAND’S WORLD--The world as we know it has ended. The Cubs won the World Series. So said one Facebook commenter known to me only as Joel's cousin, and I don't even know Joel. But the night of November 2, 2016 links people across the states, the continents even, in our celebration of the assertion that the impossible can happen. I mean, Halley's comet had already appeared twice since the last time the Cubs won the Series.
Was this victory unlikely? Well, as one of the most famous statisticians in the world pointed out a couple of days ago (back when the Cubs were down in games by 3-1), the likelihood of the Cubs winning the Series was less than that of Trump winning the presidency. Perhaps this comparison ought to make us a little nervous.
Then again, we could look at it another way: What was the statistical likelihood of both the Cubs winning the Series and Trump winning the presidency? The odds of both things happening in the same year (or at all) must be incredibly low. So now, with the Cubs winning, it must be practically impossible for Trump to win. It's like Garp's comment in The World According to Garp: "We'll take the house. Honey, the chances of another plane hitting this house are astronomical. It's been pre-disastered."
This victory undermines the basis of our civilization. As another pundit argued (also when the Cubs were down 3-1), it was a big relief that the Cubs were losing, because in threatening to win the Series, they were endangering something precious. After all, there is the Chicago spirit to conserve -- that is to say, the morbidly depressed view that whenever hope arises, it is destined to be dashed on the rocks below. It must be useful to have some fractional part of each civilization holding that point of view, lest the rest of us become reckless. The Cubs were endangering this foundational principle of our society.
The 7th game: At first (or in the 8th inning, anyway), the Cubs looked like they were going to respect that 108 year old tradition. They built up a 6-3 lead and then squandered it by giving up 3 quick runs.
Hope. Rocks below. Morbid depression.
It was game tied at the other team's ball park on a cold, rainy night with your best pitchers looking worn out and ragged.
It looked like the Cubs of old had returned. And then they had to go and destroy a tradition older than the 20th century (which, after all, was only given 100 years), a tradition that went back to monarchial rule over Europe and Asia, wooden airplanes, Giacomo Puccini, and Billy Goat's curse. All lost to history now. About all we've got left is Halley's Comet, and it's not due till the 2060s.
Here's another odd item. The winning pitcher in the championship game of the 2016 World Series will go down in history as Aroldis Chapman. He came into the game with a solid lead and a runner on base, which means the victory would have gone to another pitcher if Chapman could have held. But he gave up the run (charged to the previous pitcher) and then a couple of his own to leave the game tied after the regulation 9 innings. Because the Cubs scored a couple of runs in the top of the 10th, Chapman gets credit for the win. Vin Scully used to dwell on the pitcher's status. Think of how many times we heard him say about a departing pitcher, "He could win it, could lose, or could have nothing to do with it." All of those were possibilities for Chapman when he entered the game, but who would have predicted the W?
Addenda
1) As I've mentioned here before, I started internet writing by doing analysis of the media, including newspapers and talk radio. At the time, Rush Limbaugh had made a name for himself by claiming that the mainstream media were biased against conservatism and in favor of liberalism. The term media bias became part of the language, and is repeated by right wing bloggers as if it is obviously true. In retrospect, mainstream media bias was no more nor less than an instinct to tell the truth once in a while about racial bias in our broader culture. Apparently it was also considered media bias when newspapers and television stations mentioned, however fleetingly, the argument that church and state are separate in our republic.
I think it's obvious that whatever existed back then, media bias has swung badly in the opposite direction the past few election cycles. The mainstream media have failed to expose the nonsense behind supply side economics, no matter how many times politicians claim that a tax cut on the rich will stimulate the economy. The media also should have been pounding on Trump's penchant for lying from the beginning. Of equal importance, Trump's propensity for respecting and hanging out with bad guys, whether foreign tyrants or local mafiosi, was slow to emerge and even now is undercovered. The one thing we can credit the media for, Trump's sexual predation, was originally brought up by a Fox News personality during a presidential debate. Apparently you can get to the media by talking about sex, no matter which side the candidate.
There is one exception to this story. The late night comedy shows are taking every chance to drill Donald Trump. Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers are doing their best to make him into a laughingstock. They are two of the more visible faces of two of the biggest on-air networks.
The biggest difference between then and now is the development of the internet as a major source for public opinion. It's become the office water cooler of the modern age.
2) Here's to Jessica Rosner, film history expert and long-time Cub's fan. I can remember you wearing that Cubs hat at film festivals over these many years. Congratulations. You finally did it.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for City Watch. He can be reached at [email protected])
-cw
‘The World as We Know It has Ended’
