Comments
LA WATCHDOG - California voters are being asked to approve or reject Proposition 50. This measure, if approved, would alter California’s 52 Congressional districts with the intent to increase the likelihood that five more Democrats would be elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. The impetus behind Governor Newson’s efforts is to counter the mid-decade redistricting in Texas that has the possibility of increasing Republican representation in Congress by five seats. Prop 50 is an integral part of Newsom’s presidential campaign.
This is a part of the battle to control Congress. Today, the Republicans have control with 219 seats while the Democrats have 213. There are three vacancies, two of which were Democratic and one Republican.
More than likely, whether Prop 50 passes or not, control of the House will flip to the Democrats. In the past, mid-term elections have not favored the party of the President with an average loss of more than 20 seats, enough to flip control of the House to the Democrats. If 20 seats were flipped, the Democrats would have 235 representatives, a seventeen vote margin.
While the polls indicate that Prop 50 will pass, there are several disturbing issues surrounding this special election.
This special election also sets a horrible precedent because it overrides the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission. The proposed highly partisan redistricting map (Gavinmandering) that was drawn up behind closed doors without any public input and is exactly why voters approved Proposition 11 in 2008 (51%) and Proposition 20 (61%) in 2010 despite significant opposition by the Democratic Party and the campaign funding public sector unions.
The title and summary that were written by the not so independent State’s Attorney General. The summary does not mention that this election will cost the State around $300 million, an amount that the State that is running a $20 billion plus deficit cannot afford. This does not include over $100 million in campaign contributions, primarily from supporters of Prop 50.
The proponents of this proposition have outraised the opponents by a significant amount, in part because of the pay-to-play scheme where generous public sector unions have benefitted from favorable legislation from our elected officials, including Governor Newsom.
If passed and five Republican representatives are not reelected, the remaining four members will represent only 8% of California’s delegation. This compares to Trump’s share of the 2024 vote of 38%. This essentially disenfranchises the out-of-touch Republican Party, at the same time when California needs credible opposition to prevent one-party Sacramento from incurring multibillion dollar deficits and incurring more indebtedness, from increasing unfunded pension and other retirement liabilities, and failing to repair and maintain the State’s infrastructure.
If Proposition 50 passes, the midterm elections in November of 2026 will be a battle royal.
********************
In the 2030 census, California is expected to lose four seats in the Congress while Texas will gain four representatives. Overall, red states are expected to gain 13 seats at the expense of the blue states.
There are nine blue states where all 27 representatives are Democrats (the six New England states, Delaware, New Mexico, and Hawaii) and twelve states where all 30 representatives are Republicans (Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Viginia, and Wyoming).
(Jack Humphreville writes the LA Watchdog column for CityWatch, where he covers city finances, utilities, and accountability at City Hall. He is President of the DWP Advocacy Committee, serves as the Budget and DWP representative for the Greater Wilshire Neighborhood Council, and is a longtime Neighborhood Council Budget Advocate. With a sharp focus on fiscal responsibility and transparency, Jack brings an informed and independent voice to Los Angeles civic affairs. He can be reached at [email protected]. )
