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HEALTHWATCH - For years, the United States has been facing a doctor shortage, and the situation after COVID-19 is getting worse, not better. A lack of doctors is hitting all levels of the healthcare system, from general physicians to surgeons, and now patients are starting to suffer. The shortage isn’t because of COVID-19 either, as this started years before the pandemic.
A Problem 40 Years In The Making
Back in 2010, the media was starting to report that patients were having difficulty finding a doctor. While the problem was identified, there is no one specific cause, and instead, it’s the culmination of multiple factors, from a decline in medical students, burnout rates, and an aging population of physicians.
Ironically, back in 1980, the Department of Health and Human Services predicted an excess of physicians by 1990, which resulted in a moratorium on the opening of new medical schools and a freeze on medical school enrollment. This lasted until 2005, and the damage was done, but the full effects were, understandably, going to take a few years to be felt.
Now in 2024, the majority of practicing physicians is nearing retirement age, and due to the moratorium, there is a significant generational gap in the field. Compounding this divide is the overall aging population of America, flooding doctor’s offices and making it difficult for anyone to get an appointment.
Meeting the demands of the aging population is then increasing the frequency of doctor burnout. There’s not enough time for everyone, which means physicians can’t take sabbaticals, go on vacations, or step away from the practice to manage their own needs.
Finally, changes made at the federal level to Medicare have resulted in cuts to physician pay for the last five years, reaching a new high in 2023 with a 2.8% reduction. The American Medical Association has been attempting to lobby Congress in accordance with their Recovery Plan For America’s Physicians, but so far, nothing substantial has changed.
The Doctor Gap
To put some numbers behind the doctor shortage, in 2036, the Association of American Medical Colleges expects their to be a shortfall of 20,200 to 40,400 primary care doctors in the United States. For surgeons, the numbers aren’t much better, with a range of 10,100 to 19,900 fewer surgeons then required.
These numbers are double what the actual shortfall was in 2021. Between COVID, aging populations, and Medicare issues, in 12 years, the problem will become so pronounced, that it can no longer be ignored.
Growing Healthcare Deserts
A medical desert is defined as when someone lives over 60 miles from a hospital or medical facility. Normally, this describes rural areas, but not only is it possible within urban centers, Los Angeles is home to multiple healthcare deserts. Within urban areas, it is defined as a 5 mile distance from a medical facility.
Minority populations are disproportionately impacted by these medical deserts, and though in recent years community groups have tried to slow their growth, there is still a lot of work that has to be done. And it’s not just hospitals or clinics, even pharmacies are vanishing from minority neighborhoods, adding a barrier to access even the most basic level of healthcare.
The problem will get worse before it gets better, as the Los Angeles homeless population continues to grow, thanks in no small part to San Francisco’s unfolding relocation policy going into effect. Public services are already stretched to their limit, and with inadequate medical coverage for the current population, more individuals with untreated conditions that have been tossed aside by one municipality after another, won’t improve the situation.
What Can Be Done
There is little the average person can do, except choose to support politicians, locally and nationally, that recognize the growing shortage and will homelesstake steps to correct it. Acknowledgement that this problem hurts minorities, homeless, and the elderly the hardest can go a long way to changing attitudes about healthcare.
If you look at the current number of urgent care job openings around the country, you can start to see the scale of the issue, and how no region is being spared from its effects.
The best thing that you can do, is to be patient and understanding when going in to see a general physician or family doctor, due to the incredible stress they are likely working under. Extend this common courtesy to the office staff as well, because they too are feeling the strain of the current state of healthcare in America.
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