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IRAN WAR FALLOUT - There are many adverse consequences of the United States - Israel’s relentless attacks on Iran: So far, these joint efforts have failed, and there is no reason to believe that another round of U.S.-Israeli bombing will defeat Iran’s government or totally destroy the country,
After all, after nearly three months of joint U.S.-Israel aerial attacks none of the intended results have appeared:
· Eliminating Iran's ability to build nuclear weapons.
· Destroying Iran's missile infrastructure.
· Eradicating Iranian-backed regional militias, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
· Replacing Iran’s current government.
Meanwhile, at least 70 percent of Iran’s advanced drones and missiles remain, while the inventory of U.S.-supplied defensive missiles has been largely used up. The U.S. allies in the Middle East, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the oil sheikdoms, are facing defeat. Furthermore, Iran has largely recovered from joint U.S.-Israeli bombing, and with the technical help of Russia and China, now dominates the conflict.
At this point the Trump Administration vacillates between renewed bombing of Iran and peace offers that Iran stalls in answering to gain time for more missile attacks on oil and gas exporting states and on Israel. After all, Iran has every intention of further wearing down the nearby petroleum exporting states and Israel to prevent another attack on their country, even in several years. If their efforts are not successful, they expect that their future military capacity, assisted by China and Russia, will prevail.
In the meantime, the oil and natural gas exporting countries of the Persian Gulf will attempt to recover their business without the military “protection” of the United States military. But even when their mostly destroyed oil and gas infrastructure is finally rebuilt, things will never be the same. The demand for oil and gas will have been reduced, as heavily impacted countries turn to solar and other alternative power sources.
In the meantime, the role of the U.S. military will also have been severely reduced in this region. This is not just because of its inability to defeat Iran and the destruction of most local U.S. military bases, but also because of waning U.S. military power, including local countries supported by the U.S. government, like Israel. Furthermore, the hobbled American economy will probably not have the resources to pay for rebuilding its Persian Gulf military bases, even if it manages to obtain permission from still loyal local Sheikdoms.
Therefore, the prominence of the U.S. government in the Middle East will be permanently reduced, and possibly eliminated, despite this country’s bi-partisan “leaders” hope of perpetuating the role of the U.S. military in this oil and gas exporting region.
Will Americans take kindly to a reduced standard of living to pay for the restoration of U.S. political power in the Middle East? Not likely, and if restoring U.S. control depends on the military draft, we can expect extraordinary domestic resistance and movement of young people to Canada.
Last words: This future won’t be pretty, and it may usher in widescale opposition to draconian policies which will never succeed in restoring the post-WW II status of the U.S. government in the Middle East.
(Victor Rothman is a California-based policy analyst and a frequent contributor to CityWatchLA.com)
