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WESTSIDE - Like so many contests around the country witnessed thus far, will voters in this coastal and affluent district move to the left, or remain in the moderate middle?
The race between Brian Goldsmith and West Hollywood Councilmember John Erickson remains one of the most competitive legislative contests in California. Both Democrats advanced from the June 2nd primary and will face each other in the November general election.
Erickson finished first in the primary with 20.5%, while Goldsmith was close behind at 18.3% in a crowded 10-candidate field.
Erickson received 62,397 votes while Goldsmith garnered 55,627. 61.2% of those that voted opted for other candidates in the field while 31.64% selected third-place finisher G. Rick Marshall (53,350) or fourth-place candidate Kristina Irwin (42,939), both Republicans.
Erickson has indicated he will reach out to the defeated Democrats but had no interest in those voters that supported the two Republicans. In contrast, Goldsmith plans to reach out to all primary voters come the November runoff.
With 96,289 votes seemingly up for grabs, is Erickson rolling the dice politically speaking by making no attempt for a third of the tabulated primary vote?
Traditionally speaking, most candidates move to the middle in general elections, but California's open primary process has left voters with two Democrats from competing political spectrums.
And has anything changed recently in what has been a race about endorsements and ideology?
There have not been any widely reported independent polls of the general election since the June 2nd Primary.
However, several political developments are worth noting.
Goldsmith continues to consolidate both national and local endorsements.
He recently received the endorsement of progressive activist Ellen Evans, who finished 9th in the June 2nd primary. This adds to his long list of support from noteworthy national Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Pete Buttigieg, and West Hollywood Councilmember Lauren Meister, who serves with Erickson on that governing body.
While Erickson was woefully outspent in the primary, he retains strong institutional Democratic support from numerous Democratic elected officials, labor organizations and LGBTQ+ advocacy leaders, reflecting his base in West Hollywood and progressive Democratic activists throughout the district.
So, who appears to be ahead?
At this point, while many political observers would handicap the race as favoring Goldsmith, this race is really just resetting with some four months to go.
Goldsmith has demonstrated exceptional fundraising throughout the campaign and has consistently been among the top cash-on-hand candidates. His coalition appears to be broadening beyond Beverly Hills into Santa Monica, the South Bay and even some parts of West Hollywood. Several influential Democrats have crossed local political lines to endorse him, as his moderate messaging seems picture perfect for the demographics of the 24th LD.
While Erickson's first-place primary finish gives him credibility, his margin over Goldsmith was only about two percentage points in a very fragmented, 10-candidate field.
Geographically speaking, Goldsmith seems to be leading in certain pockets of the district such as Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, and moderate Democratic and business-oriented communities in the beach cities.
In contrast, Erickson's political base is still West Hollywood, LGBTQ+ voters and organized labor and activist political networks with strong following with public employee unions, especially teachers.
As this race is reshaping, independent expenditure spending, and labor union endorsements that have not yet been announced will play a significant role in the overall tone, tenor and ultimate direction of the contest. There are several key elected officials, such as LA Councilwoman Traci Park (CD-11), coming off an easy reelection run that has not endorsed to date. Whether elected officials who supported eliminated Democratic candidates or did not endorse at all now consolidate behind either Goldsmith or Erickson is a big question.
In the end, will Goldsmith continue to consolidate moderate, liberal, and traditional Democrats while Erickson tries maximizing his base among progressives, Democratic Socialists and LGBTQ+ voters is unanswered.
While Erickson remains highly competitive, Goldsmith appears to have slightly more momentum following the primary with the accumulation of high-profile national endorsements along with stated, district-wide support.
This has become a match race of sorts between two competing wings of the Democratic Party in a district that has been dominated by moderates, centrists and traditional liberals. Retiring Senator Ben Allen has served faithfully as a Democrat and his support of Goldsmith as his successor could play a significant role with undecided voters moving forward.
(Nick Antonicello is a thirty-three-year resident of the Westside who is covering this open seat senate contest. A regular contributor of City Watch LA; he can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected])
