Comments@TheGussReport – Predicting LA’s fortunes requires a decent read on our city and county officials. Dialogue with them and listen closely because what they say matters; their evasion matters more; and their evasion while speaking matters most. (Photo art above: LA’s new skyline?)
“The winds of change blow from the west” is the trite refrain they often invoke when justifying many an ill-conceived idea. Bullet-train, anyone? But in a year with Trumpian-force winds, LA (and San Francisco and Sacramento for that matter) is going to be tested big-time, especially when its desperate need for federal dollars is weighed against its pledge to remain a sanctuary city. And since LA is unaccustomed to being tested by outside forces, there are plenty of balls for it to drop.
That said, let’s peek into the 2017 crystal ball…..double, double toil and trouble; fire burn, and Garcetti trouble.
- After Mayor Eric Garcetti is re-elected, he will abandon that which helped get him hired and quietly cooperate in federal programs to deport criminal residents, causing fear within law-abiding immigrant communities.
- Garcetti will also within the very first year of his second term, quietly form an advisory committee to help him get his next job, whether in the U.S. Senate or as governor. This will have a domino effect on a game of musical chairs between LA County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas, LA City Council President Herb Wesson and LA City Controller Ron Galperin to sidestep term limits and make a dash for one another’s jobs. And when there are politicians, there are offspring like Assemblymember Sebastian Ridley-Thomas and Herb Wesson III looking to upgrade their gigs as well. Timing is everything, and it will all be triggered by Garcetti.
- Los Angeles will be caught sleeping on a bigger, perhaps multi-pronged, terror threat. After Garcetti’s late-Summer, one-day show of courage by riding the subway (after the FBI verified as credible an overseas threat to LA’s subway system) as he was protected by militarized LAPD officers, the protection dissipated and City Council didn’t utter a word about it. On a good day, the most visual deterrence you will find at any local subway station are LASD officers … scanning riders’ TAP cards to ensure that they paid. And exactly what deterrence do you see on Hollywood Boulevard, near Staples Center or on Santa Monica’s Third Street Promenade? You see exactly none because, government feels, a law enforcement presence is not good for tourism. Let’s hope I am especially wrong on this item.
- On housing, those residents who are most negatively impacted by Airbnb, affordable housing, mansionization and Caruso-esque over-development will get promises that turn out empty. As the Times’ David Zahniser pointed out again the other day, when there is developer money, there are politicians with their hands extended and that trumps (small T) all.
- The City of Los Angeles will in 2017 write a check for at least $100,000 (and perhaps far more) to Wayne Spindler for false arrest and, ironically, civil rights violation claims he made against the city after his racially tinged run-in with City Council president Herb Wesson early in 2016. Whether Wesson votes in favor of such a settlement or abstains from it remains to be seen. Also of note will be whether Councilmember Curren Price, who was seen shaking Spindler’s hand and telling him “that’s a good one….you got me on that,” just days after he said Spindler “should be made an example of,” will vote in favor of such a settlement. The question is what, if anything, does Spindler have on Price?
- The LAFD, which has yet to come clean on scores of phony fire inspections, will come under increasing scrutiny as fire risks in unpermitted residences ranging from garages to Oakland-esque warehouses are discovered here.
- LA’s credit rating will be at-risk, not only because of the possible loss of federal money, but also – as my CityWatch colleague Jack Humphreville has repeatedly pointed out – unfunded public pension obligations, and the fact that the city had to borrow just $8 million to recently settle LAPD wrongful death lawsuits. For a city with a nearly $9 billion budget, that’s worrisome and noticeable to credit analysts.
- Speaking of money, City Controller Ron Galperin will again fail to claw-back that $40 million that evaporated unexplained at the LADWP. In fact, he won’t say a word about it.
- Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which I wrote about in 2016 on its way to losing 95% of its value, will at some point gain nearly 50% from its current value of less than $14 per share to nearly touch $20 per share, or go beyond it on news of a buyout or asset sale.
- And on the sports front, the San Diego Chargers will not move to Los Angeles and stay in San Diego … if they are wise, and work out a new stadium deal there. If I am wrong on this, they will announce a move to Inglewood to bunk up with the Rams at their forthcoming new stadium rather than head to a congested downtown LA stadium near where the NBA’s Clippers and Lakers are roommates at Staples Center.
It will be announced that the 2024 Olympics will go to Paris. But take comfort in knowing that LA squandered time and resources pursuing the games with better odds than Budapest, so there’s that … When Boston dropped out of the running in July 2015, LA should have done the same and focused on fixing everything here that needs it.
And finally in Dodgerland, Justin Turner will do the rare thing and have a career season in the first year of his lucrative new contract. If he plays at least 150 games, he will approach 30 home runs, 100 RBI and a .300 average, which he has never done before…..and make his first MLB All-Star game in the season he turns the ripe age of … 33. If the Roberto Clemente-capable Yasiel Puig actually makes it to the Dodgers’ opening day roster, the now 26-year old will need to turn around his annual decrease in production at the plate, toot-sweet. He will see juicier pitches if the Azul bats him in front of Turner, but do they trust him at the top of the lineup? Otherwise, he may be gone by the August trade deadline.
I am just the messenger and would love to be wrong about much of this, but at least we’ve got the sunny, warm weather to enjoy when sitting in freeway congestion.
(Daniel Guss, MBA, is a contributor to CityWatch, KFI AM-640, Huffington Post and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @TheGussReport. His opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of CityWatch.)
-cw
