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DEEGAN ON LA—The political chessboard just got busier for the upcoming mayoral and gubernatorial elections. Mayor Bass may face a threat or a cakewalk. Governor Newsom is termed out; that field is wide open.
On a second level is the gone-viral pulling of the veil off of Katie Porter who may bounce back or come to have been sunk, depending on how the electorate reacts to her sudden publicly available noxious verbal sparring with her staff and the media; negative clips used by the opposition will provide lots of character ammo; her exposed thin skin will be targeted; this is just the beginning of the politicking: more behavioral gaffes may be part of her makeup and her downfall.
Another level of the game is lurking in the just-announced entry to the mayoral race by civic figure Austin Beutner, whose bona fides include being a deputy mayor under Antonio Villaraigosa, editor of the LA Times, and the LAUSD Superintendent. He’s a wealthy candidate but not on a scale that he could afford to Caruso his own campaign.
That billionaire businessman has long been teasing with a run for political office, seemingly LA Mayor or California Governor. He can, once again, inject millions into either campaign if he decides to run for one or the other.
A very long and flattering profile of County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath in the LA Times a few days ago may be destined for her scrapbook or her campaign website. She doesn’t sound like she’s ruling anything out.
California is a “top two” primary state where the top two vote getters regardless of party affiliation go to the final election. Next year, the primary will be held on June 2 and the general election on November 3.
Bass could be facing Beutner and maybe Caruso in the Primary election. The two rich white male candidates may look indistinguishable to the voters which may help Bass. This is why Hovarth as a wild card would add some frisson and differentiation to the race.
Statewide, the termed-out governor may find a win for his Prop 50 redistricting ballot measure that adds five congressional seats, but only as a Pyrrhic victory offsetting a proposed five additional congressional districts creation in Texas.
Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Indiana are also taking the “extras” route by preparing to redraw their congressional maps in an effort to please Trump and lock up the House as a Red superpower.
Indiana may do so in a very radical manner. Two days ago Trump asked Indiana state lawmakers to draw a new map that would eliminate the state’s two Democratic districts and give Republicans all nine congressional seats, wiping any blue seats off the political map of the state.
None of these mid-decade redrawing of congressional boundaries to take from Democrats and give to Republicans involve voter buy-in like California does. Their timing is not reliant on a November 4 vote like California does, but a pliable response to the titular head of the GOP.
If this happens, and those five states rejigger their congressional district maps, Newsome’s quarter-billion-dollar gerrymandering electoral plan to add seats could be dwarfed by those other states. Our next governor cannot make this type of costly and shortsighted strategic mistake which is why the governor’s race and its winner is so important for California.
An acknowledgement by Porter of her behavior has been voiced by her. It may not be enough. Voters have already had once chance, in the 2024 Senate election, to elect Porter to statewide office. She never made it to November; she was swamped by a 2:1 ratio in the primary by current Senator Adam Schiff.
The mayoral race is now focused on incumbent Mayor Bass, the just declared Austin Beutner, a real threat by Rick Caruso, and in the shadows Hovarth.
Unlike the race for governor, the mayoral race is becoming defined which will help with fundraising and endorsements.
The City Clerk has announced February 7, 2026 as the last day to file as a candidate for the June 2 primary election.
(Tim Deegan is a longtime civic activist and columnist whose Deegan on LA feature has been a staple of CityWatchLA for over a decade. With a focus on Los Angeles city politics and neighborhood issues, Deegan brings thoughtful analysis and grassroots perspective to every column. His work highlights the voices of local communities and the impact of City Hall decisions on everyday Angelenos. He can be reached at [email protected].)
