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GELFAND’S WORLD - Donald Trump won the election and the Democrats have already conceded formally. So there's that, if nothing else. None of that whining about a stolen election on this side. The Republicans will have solid control of the Senate, which promises mischief in judicial appointments. Whether or not Robert F Kennedy Jr actually gets a high appointment depends on whether Trump is going to keep his word. One colleague wondered whether the combined influence of big pharma could be used to halt his senatorial confirmation.
There are already recriminations among the Democrats and Democrat-adjacent folks such as Bernie Sanders. Sanders is complaining that the Democrats have abandoned the working class. This is a hard one, because some of that schism goes back to the days when working class influence included a solid core of white privilege. Another significant factor is that non-governmental union power has been declining for half a century. What was once a core element of Democratic power is not so much nowadays. Think about that Blue Wall that came tumbling down on Tuesday and how it used to be defined by automotive unions and steel workers.
But I suspect that Kevin Drum hit it on the head when he asked whether the whole thing was really just about inflation. As he pointed out, governments all over the world, of every political cast, have been turned out by voters after a bout of post-Covid inflation -- people get pissed off by inflation and they take it out on whoever is in power.
If that was the case, then it suggests a strategy for the Democratic Party which is a bit counter-intuitive: Stick with the current policies because they are morally and economically correct and because they are popular. Chalk this election up to post-Covid inflation and leave it at that. In the next election, the party in power will have to answer for whatever economic downturns occur on their watch. Considering Donald Trump's weird approach to decision making, it is likely that there will be some such event. For example, if Trump were actually to impose tariffs above those that already exist, the taxes will immediately be factored into the costs of imports. That will mean higher prices for all those Chinese manufactured items and, in addition, to all those supermarket products that depend on imported machinery for their creation and distribution.
And that leads to one other editorial remark. From now on, it's all on Trump and his administration. They won, and now they will take the responsibility -- and the blame -- for whatever happens. Will they deport hundreds of thousands of non-citizens? It would have a predictable upward effect on the prices of farm products, on the price of chicken, and on the costs of construction. (It is likely that the deportations will only take place at a small, fairly insignificant level, because American farm and factory owners make use of a lot of inexpensive labor and don't want to lose it.)
Will we sell out the Ukrainians? It will humiliate the United States on the international level, just to mention the least important part. But it will also cause us to lose influence internationally, as once again President Trump will be undercutting solemn promises we made under other administrations. The big question is whether the Europeans and Asians (South Korea; Japan?) can pick up the slack. There is a lot riding on maintaining Ukrainian independence and freedom.
The imposition of Trumpian economics will lead to economic flux. Put it this way -- economics is not a sure thing like the physics of falling objects, but it is accurate enough to explain overall effects. The Great Depression was a continuing mystery and horror at the time, but Keynesian economics and its later developments have been pretty good both in explaining recessions and in preventing the mass bank failures and depressions of previous eras. Trump not only doesn't understand such things, he likes to dabble in silly experiments and, worse yet, bases a lot of what he does on simple pique. He would have destroyed Obama's accomplishments in health insurance if he could have, for no rational reason.
Rather than try to move the Democratic Party towards Trumpian policies, the party should just figure that the price of eggs and corn flakes angered enough voters to turn the election, and leave it at that.
But this realization leads to one other political argument. Let's give Trump a few months to get those supermarket prices down, all the while pointing out that this is what he promised to do. Remember his promise that he would "fix" all those problems? And as the months go by, let's continue to remind the American people that Republican economic policies are designed to serve the owners of Walmart and Vons, not the shopper. If those prices are not down to pre-Covid levels by mid-2025, let's put the blame right where it belongs, on Trump and his appointees.
There isn't any doubt that we are in for a horror show in terms of presidential appointments, cabinet officers, agency heads, and the operation of national police agencies. We will no longer be able to say, "No man is above the law." One is.
Addendum: State and local election results
Will Kevin De Leon survive that scandalous telephone call that took down Nury Martinez? Right now, it doesn't look like it. He is currently behind by just over 6000 votes, but with thousands of mail-in ballots yet to be counted. The odds favor his opponent, Ysabel Jurado to take the 14th District seat on the City Council. In an election night interview, Kevin said that it will be a long week before the race is settled, which is technically true, but he would need to have a substantial majority of all the rest of the votes, which seems unlikely.
In a big question that got less interest than it should have, the County Supervisors either will or will not be increased from 5 to 9 members. Measure G also provides for an elected County Executive and provides for an ethics commission. Janice Hahn supported it publicly, but Supervisors Kathryn Barger and Holly Mitchell opposed it. As of now, the measure is barely holding on by a vote of 1,165,162 in favor and 1,149,591 against. That's a difference of two-thirds of one percent. This one could go either way as mail-in ballots are counted.
And then there were the state legislature races. Remember that California has been governed by what the media call a Democratic Party trifecta. Translated into simple English, that means that the governor and both houses of the state legislature are under Democratic Party control. No wonder the national Republicans are so determined to paint California as some sort of hellhole. But on Tuesday, California voters from all over the state supported continuing Democratic Party control. The lower house of the legislature, the Assembly, has 80 members who face reelection every two years. On Tuesday, voters put Democrats in 61 of those seats which translates to a 76% supermajority. In the state senate, only half of the 40 seats are up for election each 2 years. In those 20 races, Democrats took 16. So once again, the voters of California have dramatically rejected the Republican Party and entrusted control over the state to the D's.
Of course there are always a couple of races that remain close at the end of election day, so these numbers could change minimally. But Democratic supermajorities are pretty much guaranteed for the next 2 years.
This is not necessarily an optimum policy, as CityWatch authors have explained. There is considerable tension between land-use policies coming out of San Francisco vs. southern California desires. But overall, the decision by millions of voters to reject the extremism of Republicans is clear.
And then there were several hard-fought congressional races nearby. It appears that local Republican incumbents survived, although there are still votes to be counted.
The big question is whether the House of Representatives will be controlled by the Republicans or the Democrats. If it is the Republicans, then they will control the national government and we are in for a real ride. If it is the Democrats, then we are in for the mirror image of what we have now, with Democrats keeping some control over what Trump and the Republican Senate can do.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
