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GELFAND’S WORLD - With three and a half months remaining until the November elections, the Democratic presidential nomination is up in the air. Will there be a dramatic change -- ie: Biden dropping out -- by the time this comment is published, or over the weekend? Let's consider the condition of the battle lines as of this moment, and what they suggest. The context is that we are running out of time if there is to be a change in the ticket, because every day that goes by is a day lost in telling the new story.
The television news keeps telling us that 70% of Americans polled want Biden to drop out and that 65% of Democrats feel the same. Of course this being polling data, there is someone who disputes the accuracy -- exemplified by what we see over at DailyKos -- which you can read here. But suppose the fraction of Democrats who want a new presidential ticket is only maybe 60% instead of 65%, it's still the end of the road for Biden if it is correct. That's not because Democrats wouldn't vote for Biden over Trump. Most voters "come home" on election day. But it does mean that a small percentage of Democrats and independent voters will simply stay home on election day or protest by leaving the presidential column blank, and that would be all it takes for a Trump landslide victory.
I'd like to concentrate the argument on those of us who watched the presidential debate. We can't unsee those first 5 minutes. Whatever Joe Biden has accomplished over the past couple of weeks, the image of the guy who was asleep on his feet and couldn't put together a coherent sentence is stuck with us. If Biden is the candidate, we are going to be seeing those moments every day in the opposition television ads.
The counterargument is that Biden would be a good president in the next term, and if he has to resign or dies in office, we would have a good substitute. The argument is based on Biden's outstanding record in this term. To the rational mind, this is good enough as an argument, as the alternative is another drama-fest of a Trump presidency, except that this time around, there won't be any cabinet members or agency heads who are loyal to the Constitution and would try to keep Trump's weirder tendencies in check. But it's not a good argument from the political standpoint, because it is not the strategy that would win the election.
So where are we as this critical weekend approaches?
As various commenters have said, the fact that a few Democratic congressmen have called for Biden to withdraw wasn't really enough. Joe has been pretty set in his position and makes the argument that 14 million Democratic voters supported him in the primaries. I think that this is a weak argument, which we will consider further below.
But what would it take to convice Biden to drop out? Likely it would take evidence of a wholesale revolt in the ranks, from bottom to top. In brief, it would take at minimum the efforts of the leadership, which include Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Nancy Pelosi, who would make clear that the majority wants him out.
At the moment, we have some evidence that this revolt has already taken place, although the congressional leadership have not made it public. But we do have one important piece of evidence.
When it was leaked that Adam Schiff wants Biden to drop out, that was the first shoe to drop. The second was Schiff's pronouncement (just a day ago) making his position public and official. As one television commenter pointed out, Schiff is close to Nancy Pelosi and would not have made the statement without her OK. Consider Schiff to be the proverbial "stalking horse" for the leadership circle.
There has also been some jockying as to whether the Democratic convention could hold an early online vote to nominate Biden and Harris. The original reason was an obscure Ohio rule that had an early deadline for sending in party candidate names for ballot inclusion. That Ohio rule has actually been changed, and is no longer in play. It looks like the early online vote won't happen, at least in terms of nominating Joe Biden, although this depends on Democratic Party insiders acting in good faith.
What's left is Biden's point that he won the nomination fair and square. He cites 14 million voters who supported him in the primaries. The problem is that a lot of those voters have obviously changed their minds. They don't support Trump, but they are disappointed in Biden and fear a Trump victory. Were the primaries to be held tomorrow, it is unlikely that Biden would do anywhere as well.
So it's time to decide. What will Joe do? I suspect that he understands that putting off the decision would be disastrous if he were eventually to drop out. It's pretty much now or never.
We can look for clues in the next couple of days in terms of more senators going public. If Schumer, Pelosi, and Jeffries make public statements supporting the Biden candidacy, that would signal that they have given up, and that the game is over.
Afterward: It really is the guns
The latest evidence suggests that it would not have been likely that the Trump shooter would have been identified as a possible assassin or mass shooter. He sounds pretty ordinary according to the remarks of one high school classmate. But he had access to a semiautomatic rifle, and he had the model of so many other mass shootings to copy. If nothing else, this undercuts the latest pro-gun argument that it's mental illness and not the guns that needs to be dealt with. It's always been a specious argument.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
