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PLANNING WATCH - How can the LA area have so many vacant houses and apartments, yet builders and Sacramento politicians claim the underlying problem is a housing shortage, for which they must build “affordable” housing to fill the gap? This is the essence of SB 79, a new California state housing law. SB 79 overrides local zoning laws, forcing cities to allow denser, taller apartments near selected major public transit stations and rapid bus lines.
Oblivious to SB 79, Los Angeles city loses over 10,000 people per year, resulting in a declining population, which will drop from 3,800,000 people in 2026 to 3,200,0000 people by 2070. This population forecast comes from the State of California Department of Finance. This State agency also ey forecasts that by the year 2070 the population of LA county will be 8,814,000 people. At present, LA County’s population is 9,641,811,000 people, down about 200,000 individuals since from the 2020,population in 2020 only six years ago, but about 1.5 million more than LA County’s forecast population in 2070..
Since most of these departing Angelenos lived in a house or apartment, their move from LA to cheaper housing markets should free up existing housing. In fact, in my Wilshire area neighborhood, there is at least one vacancy sign per block advertising an apartment for rent. While the asking rent is still expensive, the apartments are available. All you need is the money for first and last month rent, plus a damage deposit. Since many people don’t have this much money, the vacant apartments will mostly remain unrented. Prospective tenants are forced to live in overcrowded conditions or sleep outside; housing conditions that will get worse over time because of steady job loss, declining population, and reduced purchasing power.
LA County’s steady loss of population explains the prevalence abundance of vacant apartments and even vacant houses , including throughout the the City of Los Angeles region. Harder to explain is the steady increase of the cost of housing when controlling for inflation. Even harder to understand are the calls from builders and landlords for rampant upzoning in the Los Angeles area. This is their proposal to create what they are callled “affordable” residences, even though when LA the County already has ample so much vacant housing, a figure that will only increase over time. This is because LA, the state, and the entire country will experience an economic crisis in the years ahead.
A tortured explanation for this changereality is the declining birth rate in Los Angeles and the resulting growth of 1 and 2 person eople households. Supposedly these small households suddenly y increase demand for housing, but this leaves the growing number of vacant apartments hard to explain. If this were LA’s new reality, wWhy aren’t these vacant units being y being rented by single people or couples once they become vacant?
Yet this is the housing rreality of Los Angeles, at least in the upzoning of Los Angeles required by recently adopted SB 79. Despite the opposition of LA elected officials, after 2030 SB 79 will eventually upzone many corridors in the city, creating opportunities for speculators to buy up residentially-zoned property in order to build new 5 or 10 story apartments in their place.
As I have written before, I expect SB 79 to be another mostly hype failed legislative remedy for homelessness and overcrowding because steadily declining population combined with increased apartment vacancies reduces the demand for new apartments.
(Dick Platkin is a retired Los Angeles city planner who writes about planning issues in LA. He is a board member of United Neighborhoods for Los Angeles (UN4LA). Previous columns are available at the CityWatchLA archives. Please send questions to [email protected].)
