Karen Bass Trails in Reelection Race — Can She Turn It Around?

WESTSIDE - As of September 27, 2026, Karen Bass is in a substantially weaker position than she was entering the June primary. Her message is fragmented, confusing and defensive as it seems her chances for reelection are slipping away. 

The clearest evidence is the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, conducted Sept. 15–20: Nithya Raman 39%, Bass 28%, undecided 33% among likely L.A. Voters.

Bass also has a 63% unfavorable rating versus 28% favorable. This upside down this late in the race may be unfixable for the trailing incumbent. 

Here are 10 reasons why Bass is trailing, without assuming that the current polling necessarily determines the November result:

1. The Palisades Fire remains the biggest political liability. Fifty-six percent in the latest Berkeley/Times poll said Bass did a poor or very poor job responding to the disaster; only 14% said she did an excellent or good job. That issue persisted long after the fire itself like a black cloud over her campaign.
2. Her overall favorability is exceptionally weak. Bass is at 28% favorable / 63% unfavorable in the latest polling. That's a serious problem for an incumbent because Raman doesn't have to persuade everyone to become enthusiastic about her; Bass first must overcome existing negative perceptions with voters.
3. Homelessness remains politically toxic. Bass can point to reductions in street homelessness with her Inside Safe program, but homelessness is still among voters' top concerns, and the latest Times reporting notes increasing homelessness numbers as part of a difficult news cycle confronting her campaign.
4. Basic city services are an increasingly important issue. Infrastructure, potholes, streets, sidewalks, and general delivery of municipal services rank among voters' most negative concerns. LAistdescribes the election as occurring amid concerns about a “paucity of basic city services like pothole repair.” Compound this with broken streetlights, sidewalks and an overall perception Los Angeles is dirty, decrepit and falling apart. 
5. Public safety remains a vulnerability despite improved homicide statistics. Bass can legitimately point to historically low homicide numbers, but voters' perception of crime and public safety remains challenging. This creates a disconnect between some of the administration's measurable accomplishments and how voters view a city in rapid decline. 
6. Housing affordability hasn't improved for most Angelenos. Bass emphasizes accelerating housing production and affordable housing, but the cost of housing remains one of the central problems identified by voters and by the current campaign coverage. Raman is attacking the administration from the position that L.A. isn't building enough housing quickly enough.
7. Raman has successfully positioned herself as a "change" candidate without being an outsider. This is crucial. Raman isn't Spencer Pratt. She has five years of City Council experience and previously worked with Bass on homelessness and housing. That gives her an argument that she understands City Hall but can run it differently.
8. Raman is consolidating voters who are dissatisfied with Bass from the left. Bass doesn't have the normal Democratic incumbent's advantage of facing only a Republican challenger. Raman is competing for traditional Democratic liberals and progressives who might otherwise automatically support the incumbent. The September poll shows Raman leading Bass in nearly every geographic region except South L.A. and the Harbor area. 
9. Bass has an acute communications problem. Accomplishments aren't necessarily breaking through to voters.  Bass points to lower street homelessness, housing production, lower homicide totals and other accomplishments. But the polling suggests those achievements have not been translated into a positive overall assessment of her administration. That is a messaging problem as much as a policy problem. 
10. The anti-Bass campaign has become far more organized. The LA Times reported that Raman-aligned groups had roughly two dozen different video spots attacking Bass on homelessness, transparency and the Palisades fire, while the campaign advertising intensified dramatically in September. The sheer volume of negative messaging makes it harder for Bass's positive accomplishments to dominate the conversation. In essence, Raman has successfully defined Bass as a failed mayor, and that is crippling her with undecided voters.

So, can Bass turn it around?

Theoretically speaking, yes.

There is one significant opening for her because 33% of likely voters remain undecided.

That's an unusually large bloc this close to the election.

Also, Raman's 39% isn't a majority; Bass has 28%, meaning the immediate question isn't whether Bass can persuade Raman's entire coalition to abandon her. It's whether Bass can substantially consolidate the undecided electorate while reducing her own unfavorables. 

There is also an interesting contradiction in the polling. Bass was at 41% among voters surveyed Sept. 15 in the subgroup used for the poll, compared with Raman's 21%, before the broader poll results were reported. 

Her campaign argues that street homelessness has fallen 17.5%, 40,000 housing units have been accelerated; homicide totals are at their lowest level in decades, and the city has undertaken major infrastructure and housing initiatives.

But you don't see this messaging in the Bass campaign in a convincing or persuasive way. 

So, what would a Bass comeback actually require?

Rather than predicting whether Bass can do it, the measurable things to watch are:

• Does her unfavorable rating fall below 50%? 
• Does she cut Raman's lead among undecided voters? 
• Can she move the Palisades Fire issue out of the top tier of voter wrath?
• Can she convince voters that homelessness is actually improving rather than merely being managed?
• Does her advertising successfully define Raman before Raman defines Bass? 
• Can Bass substantially improve her numbers on the Westside and in the San Fernando Valley?
• Can she consolidate her South L.A. Base, and the Harbor while making gains elsewhere, like the Westside? 

That 33% undecided number is probably the most important fact in the latest polling. It means the current 39–28 split is not equivalent to a settled electorate.

At the same time, Bass's 63% unfavorable rating and the 11-point deficit mean she has a substantial image problem to overcome, not simply a turnout problem.

Most importantly, Raman leads Bass 35%–34% on the Westside in the latest poll. That is a striking number because the Westside contains areas where Bass might ordinarily expect considerable support as she received in 2022 against Rick Caruso.

For example, where is Bass in Venice, Mar Vista, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades and the San Fernando Valley? Is there enough time, energy, organization and voter reception to right a ship that appears headed to be a one term administration, the first time since 2005 when former Mayor James Hahn was denied reelection?  

For if the objective is to improve Bass's position before November 3, she should focus on five things:

1. Own the Palisades Fire issue:

This may be the single most important image problem. Rather than continuing to litigate whether she personally was responsible, Bass could make a very direct acknowledgment:

Spend the rest of the campaign talking about specific changes in emergency management, communications, and fire preparedness. This posture would be more effective than pivoting or appearing defensive.

2. Make solving homelessness the accomplishment, stop defending Inside Safe! 

Bass has spent enormous political capital defending Inside Safe. The problem is that the program's cost and durability give Raman a clear opening. The Times reported that about 40% of people housed through Inside Safe were back on the street as of last December.

Talk about what is working and what works. Time to summarize and promote measurable results like individuals permanently housed, encampments cleared, the cost and reductions in repeated homelessness data. That would allow her to claim ownership of the issue while acknowledging that the existing approach needs improvement.

3. Go after the “City That Works” issue with visible and actual accomplishments.

Raman's message is essentially "City Hall isn't working, and I will make it work." Bass needs to counter that with things voters can actually see like fixed sidewalks and streets, streetlights and parks that have been restored and renovated. Bass needs to be regarded as a "fixer" of problems and much less empty rhetoric. 

4. Aggressively court the Spencer Pratt voter.

This is probably the most obvious numerical opportunity to secure that politically speaking, inside straight!

Pratt received 26% in the June primary, and according to the Berkeley/Times poll, 63% of his voters remain undecided.

Among Pratt voters who have decided, Bass leads Raman 22% to 16%. That gives Bass a very specific target which is moderate, independent and dissatisfied voters who seek change, but reject a DSA candidacy like Raman who they see as even less palatable politically then the incumbent. 

And Bass doesn't need to pander but simply compare and contrast her vision to that of Raman on public safety, homelessness, clean streets, government accountability, fiscal responsibility and the deliverance of basic services. That's a much broader message than simply trying to mobilize the Democratic base which is fractured and fragmented with the emergence of Democratic Socialism at the local level.

5. Give voters a reason to vote for Bass, not merely against Raman

This is probably the most important strategic and fundamental message that Bass must adopt.

Having been mayor for four years, she must tout a record of success in the face of the Raman "change" message. Bass must articulate tangible results while offering a workable plan in a second term. 

That should be reduced homelessness, new affordable housing construction, repair and restore basic infrastructure, improve emergency response and ensure local government is transparent and accountable. 

Bass has accomplishments she can cite, including her campaign claims of a 17.5% reduction in street homelessness, acceleration of roughly 40,000 housing units and the city's lowest homicide total since the 1960s. But for whatever reason, it's not resonating with voters. 

The basic problem for Bass isn't that Raman is so popular. It's that Bass herself is unpopular, with 28% favorable versus the 63% unfavorable.

Is it too late to overcome that perception with just a month to go? 

Probably so. 

Even the 33% that are currently undecided, Bass needs to sweep an overwhelming majority, and she has failed to do so in this contest. 

This is not about the persuasion of Raman voters.

She needs to mine the undecided space to take a second look at her candidacy, a difficult task in the seventh inning of a nine-inning game. 

While personally likable, Bass has been unable to articulate a reason for reelection, as Raman has embraced the "change" message while becoming a more formidable alternative to the incumbent in terms of style, character and message. 

This is Mayor's final campaign for all intent and purpose. She needs to dig down deep, readjust and fine tune a message that has been stale for months.

While anything is possible, Karen Bass is running out of time in this race to rebrand herself as a competent manager of the City of Los Angeles. 

(Nick Antonicello is a thirty-three-year resident of the Westside who covers the numerous municipal, legislative and judicial races on the November ballot. A longtime contributor to City Watch LA, he can be reached via e-mail at [email protected])