CommentsD.C. DISPATCH-Just yesterday in Washington, news broke that Rick Gates had allegedly agreed to cooperate with the Special Counsel’s office in his case against Paul Manafort. Today, Mueller filed new charges under seal against both Manafort and Gates. Mueller is obviously upping the ante to get Gates to fold and for some reason he is stalling. Could Trump be considering offering pardons?
If I were a wagering individual, this is how I would envision the sequence of events to come: Gates forces Manafort to cooperate, which leads to indictments of Don Jr, Jared Kushner, possibly Ivanka as parties to a conspiracy. Then, Mueller moves to indict Trump. Yes, he indicts him and does not recommend impeachment. Along the way, other parties who we don't even know will also fall and their number will be staggering, perhaps even in the hundreds.
It was the wise words of Steve Bannon who said the Special Counsel would “follow the money” (and its laundering) -- that the trail goes from Manafort to Kushner to Ivanka to Trump. He believes that Manafort, with his broad reach into the Russian oligarchies, is the key to breaching the Trump Family Tenshu.
Today Mueller is one pace closer to his goal. With the recent conviction of Dutch lawyer, Alex Van Der Zwaan, a former lawyer with Skadden Arps’ London office, and the son-in-law of the oligarch German Kahn -- a beneficiary of the Rosnet breakup and a cofounder of Alfa Bank -- a clearer portrait of the mosaic is taking shape. What is very incredibly relevant is that a foreign national traveled to Washington D..C to submit himself to the jurisdiction of the U.S. Federal Courts for lying to the Special Counsel about his contacts with Gates. Alarm bells should be ringing all over town and abroad. Gates should be feeling the pressure too.
Back in 2009, Skadden Arps was paid between $1.2 to $4 million to write a report defending the detention of former Ukrainian President Yulia Tymoshenko by President Viktor Yanukovych. Manafort allegedly provided the firm with talking points that he wanted the firm to use to reach a preordained conclusion. This type of paid-for-hire advocacy is typically reserved for lobbying or public relations firms that reside in the Washington swamp. We generally expect a higher standard from our law firms, but Skadden was apparently prepared to cross the line and may face its own legal headaches and violations of FARA -- the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Manafort’s behind the scenes manipulation is all over this effort. FARA was established in 1938 and was the legislative branch’s response to the onslaught of German propaganda agents during pre-WWII. With a growing Russian threat looming, it may be time to strengthen FARA.
Even after he was arraigned, Manafort has continued drafting articles to justify his conduct in the Ukraine and asking publications to take his writings as his own. Mueller will have none of it and has yet to agree on bail terms. Mueller’s latest filings accuse Manafort of bank fraud and I am sure that Mueller has his eyes on Manafort’s wife, Kathy and his two daughters, one of whom was also a Skadden associate for a brief period of time.
Absent a pardon, the only way that Paul can save himself and his family is to deliver Kushner and Trump. He must negotiate a plea deal for himself and his clan. All the money used to acquire the real estate in his obscure transactions can be clawed back to the government, and the potential legal fees for the family could easily bankrupt them. Mueller has Manafort in a vise and has no plans to let go. Even if Trump were to offer pardons -- and he may only be considering one for Gates -- there could still be exposure for both in NY state.
So, one of the key takeaways is, do not lie to the FBI or fail to produce all emails requested of you or try to cover your client’s posterior or lie to any member of the special counsel -- "don't recall" may still work (remember Michael Deaver?) but do not perjure yourself. For if you do, you risk placing a bull’s eye on your own back and risk the ire of the Sohei. One will have nostalgia for the days when your life wasn't wrecked waiting for the salvation of a Trump pardon.
Like the ancient, spiritual Japanese warrior, I expect Mueller to take out his naginata (bladed polearm) rendering the “no collusion” machine, along with its related conspirators and transactions, immobile and hemorrhaging, one indictment at a time. For the related parties unlucky enough to occupy the criminal org. chart of lawyers, Russians oligarchs and trolls, real estate shells and Trump family members…hire Abbe Lowell, Tom Green or Bob Bennett; don't tweet and accept the fact that situational amnesia happens to the best of us, especially when being questioned by the Special Counsel's office.
(Sara Corcoran is the founder and publisher of National Court Monitor. She provides perspective on the nation’s capital for CityWatch.) Edited for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.
