CommentsLATINO PERSPECTIVE-For the past 16 years pundits have been saying that Latinos will decide the Presidential election. But I think that, for the first time, and for real, Latinos will decide the 2016 election.
Not only are Latino voters set for record turnout this year, but a new poll on Sunday shows Latino support for Donald Trump may be lower than for any Republican presidential candidate in more than 30 years.
According to the latest Noticias Telemundo/Latino Decisions /NALEO Educational Fund poll, Hillary Clinton has support from 76% of the Latino electorate.
That's a higher level of support than President Obama won in both of his elections. Latino Decisions' survey showed 75% of Latinos backed Obama in 2012. Exit polling put his support at 71%.
Just 14% of Latino voters backed Trump, the survey found, That's about half of Mitt Romney's 27% showing with Latinos and fewer than the GOP's low-point when Bob Dole won 21% of the Latino vote in 1996.
Polling in California found similar results, according to the final statewide USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times survey. Clinton was winning 73% of Latino registered voters compared with 17% for Trump in a two-way match up, the poll found.
Exit data compiled by the Pew Hispanic Center shows no Republican candidate faring worse with Latinos in presidential elections dating to 1980.
This past year there has been a surge in Latinos with permanent residency applying for citizenship, and a surge in voter registration as well. Almost 15 million Latinos could vote this year and many of them so worry that Donald Trump could become President that these new citizens are already voting early in Nevada, Florida, California, Texas, and other states.
Our country is going through a transformation; according to the U.S. census the white majority will be gone by 2043. It’s the latest in a series of reports that have signaled a major, long-term shift in the demographics of the United States, as non-Hispanic white Americans are expected to become a minority group over the next three decades.
For years, Americans of Asian, black and Hispanic descent have stood poised to topple the demographic hegemony historically held by whites.
I think this is a good thing for our country, but adaptation will not be easy as we have already seen with all the turmoil surrounding this 2016 election. The Republican Party’s future will greatly depend on what it does when the voting is over on Tuesday.
The United States is better and stronger when it has two great parties shaping our country. For the Democrats, they have to make sure they don’t take Latinos and other minorities for granted. Hopefully for the GOP, it will adapt, learn and become once again the party of Lincoln.
(Fred Mariscal came to Los Angeles from Mexico City in 1992 to study at the University of Southern California and has been in LA ever since. He is a community leader and was a candidate for Los Angeles City Council in District 4. Fred writes Latino Perspective for CityWatch and can be reached at: [email protected].) Edited for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.
Latinos will Decide the Election on Tuesday
