It’s Time for Dodger Baseball
LA WATCHDOG-Comcast’s decision to terminate its $45 billion acquisition of Time Warner Cable may be good news for the 3.5 million Southern Californian households that have been deprived of the right to watch the Dodgers from the comfort of their own homes.
Underlying this blackout of 70% of the market is the unwillingness of DirecTV, Charter, Cox, and other cable companies to pass along the $5 a month subscriber fee associated with TWC’s over-the-top offer to pay the Dodgers $8.35 billion over the next 25 years to distribute SportsNet LA, the Dodgers regional sports network. Assuming five million subscribers, the public would eventually be tagged for $600 million a year when you factor in the 100% markup that is needed to preserve the distributors’ 50% gross profit margin.
TWC has been reluctant to lower its price per subscriber because it may trigger a substantial write-off of its investment, probably in the range of $500 million to $1 billion. But TWC has been concerned that this sizeable hit to its financials would have an adverse impact on the market’s perception of its proposed deal with Comcast.
But now that the deal with Comcast is history due to the opposition of the Federal Government, TWC is in a position where it can write-off not only its costs associated with the failed merger (probably in excess of $100 million), but a portion of the Dodger contract associated with a lower subscriber fee, probably in the range of $1 to $2 per subscriber, or $500 million to $1 billion.
This write-off, while substantial, represents at most 2% of TWC’s $45 billion market value. Furthermore, sophisticated investors, including Charter Communications which is interested in buying TWC, will see through the smoke and value the Dodger contract based on more rational assumptions.
Consequently, it would be in everyone’s best interest for TWC to lower its price to around $3 a subscriber. Unfortunately, life has become more complicated since early in 2013 when TWC inked its deal with the Dodgers.
According to several newspaper accounts, the independent distributors may be trying to offset some of the high costs and low ratings associated with the TWC’s 20 year, $3 billion contract with the Lakers by lowering the subscriber fees for the Dodgers. There may also be efforts to tie the fees of both the Dodgers and Lakers to their performance, thereby increasing TWC’s risk profile.
The cable and satellite companies are also experiencing the increasing loss of subscribers as consumers are “cutting the cord,” embracing streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon in an attempt to lower their overhead. This is forcing the distributors to become more cost conscious as can be seen by their reluctance to overpay for the Dodgers.
There is also considerable pressure for distributors to “unbundle” their basic offering which would allow consumers to choose channels on an a la carte basis. This is particularly true of the sports related offerings which comprise an estimated 50% of the cost of the basic cable TV package, but are only viewed by only 25% of the subscribers.
This effort to “slim” down the basic offering is playing out in a lawsuit as Verizon, the sixth largest pay TV provider, is attempting to offer a basic package without ESPN, contrary to its contractual arrangement with the channel. As a matter of interest, ESPN, along with its affiliated offerings that are forced upon the distributors, is by far and away the most expensive network.
TWC is in an interesting predicament of its own making.
Does it continue to lose $100 to $200 million a year by holding out for a $5 subscriber fee or does it take the $1 billion hit to its financials, recognizing that in its exuberance that it overpaid big time for the Dodgers’ media rights, cut its losses, and lower the subscriber fee to $3?
If it is worried about its reputation, it is time for Time Warner Cable to take the hit for the home team. It is time for Dodger baseball.
(Jack Humphreville writes LA Watchdog for CityWatch. He is the President of the DWP Advocacy Committee, The Ratepayer Advocate for the Greater Wilshire Neighborhood Council, and a Neighborhood Council Budget Advocate. Humphreville is the publisher of the Recycler Classifieds -- www.recycler.com. He can be reached at: [email protected])
-cw
CityWatch
Vol 13 Issue 35
Pub: Apr 28, 2015
LA WATCHDOG-We are entering the Silly Season of LA politics as the candidates for the open City Council seats are promising paved streets, level sidewalks, pension reform, a more efficient work force, restored services, development that is respectful of our neighborhoods, less traffic congestion, lower parking fines, affordable housing, housing for the homeless, a revitalized Los Angeles River, and the phase out of the gross receipts business tax, all without raising our taxes.
LA WATCHDOG - (Editor’s Note: In light of the online 

LA'S BUDGET CRISIS - The Mayor and his staff have developed a very good Budget Survey that addresses the issues and choices concerning next year’s budget deficit that is estimated by the City Administrative Officer to be in the range of $200 million to $250 million.
LA’S BUDGET CRISIS - The Mayor wants your thoughts on how to close next year’s budget deficit that is expected to be over $200 million in the red.
LA WATCHDOG - IF the proposed $254 million Transfer Fee from the Power System of the Department of Water and Power to the City’s General Fund is not permitted pursuant to the recently passed Proposition 26 (Super Majority Vote Required to Pass New Taxes and Fees Act), then the City’s projected deficit for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2011 will soar to $712 million, a 55% increase over the current projection of $458 million. (
CITY HALL MEMO: GARAGE SALE IS ON AGAIN? - In February, the City Council voted unanimously to kill the fiscally irresponsible fire sale of nine of the City’s parking garages and their over 8,200 parking spaces. This was contrary to the consequences-be-damned Mayor’s strong support of the sale, otherwise known as the Public Private Partnership. (
DODGER DOLLAR DILEMMA - The Dodgers once again do not have enough money to meet their $8.25 million payroll at the end of May, according to Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times, the leading voice on the financial woes of the Dodgers and their beleaguered 50% owner, Frank McCourt, the “irresponsible” Boston Parking Lot Attendant. (
DWP RATES ARE GOING UP BUT … - At the Tuesday meeting of the Board of Commissioners of our Department of Water and Power, General Manager Ron Nichols informed the Board that the DWP intended to increase our water and power rates.
DODGER DOG MOSTLY BALONEY - The impeding cash crisis of the Dodgers is avoidable according to Frank McCourt (“The Boston Parking Lot Attendant”) if only Bud Selig, the consensus building Commissioner of Baseball, would approve the Dodgers $3 billion, 17 year media rights deal with Fox Sports. As part of this transaction, Fox Sports will advance the Dodgers $285 million, all of which Frank pledged to invest in the Dodgers.
LA WATCHDOG - Janice Hahn, a candidate for the Congressional seat recently vacated by Jane Harman, is not a friend of the Ratepayers of our Department of Water and Power.
LA WATCHDOG - Standard & Poor’s, one of the major bond rating companies, cut its outlook for US Treasury paper to “negative” from “stable” because of Washington’s mounting budget deficits. There is a 1-in-3 chance that Government will lose its AAA (Triple A) credit rating.
DODGER FINANCES ON THE ROCKS - Frank McCourt, affectionately known as The Boston Parking Lot Attendant on a good day, will eventually be spending a considerable amount of time in bankruptcy court.
TICKETGATE - No sooner than the ink was dry on the April 1 Settlement Agreement where Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa essentially pleaded guilty to corruption in connection with his illegal use of over $200,000 of free tickets to prime time events such as the Lakers, Oscars and Emmys, he and his political operatives were hitting up the usual suspects of City Hall supplicants and ring kissers to fund the slap-on-the-wrist fine of $42,000 and the related legal expenses.
DODGER STEW - Holy cow, did you see that move! Selig picked off McCourt, preventing Frank from stealing another $100 million from the Dodgers and their loyal but beleaguered fans.
DODGER BOOS - It was not so long ago that Frank McCourt was running with the Big Dogs: a billionaire life style, private jets, and estates in Bel Air, Malibu, and Cape Cod. And in 2009, he was the toast of town as the Dodgers won the division title and the first round of the playoffs and led all teams in attendance as 3.76 million fans (an average of 46,440 per game) came to Chavez Ravine.
LA WATCHDOG - It is Budget Season. And surprise, surprise, we have another budget crisis.

