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This article was produced by the nonprofit journalism publication Capital & Main. It is co-published here with permission. https://capitalandmain.com/once-bright-red-orange-county-could-help-turn-congress-blue
THE HOUSE - The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives could well lie in what was once the most unlikely of places: Southern California’s Orange County.
For decades, Orange County and the surrounding area functioned as a firewall for Republicans, a reliable bastion of conservative votes nearly guaranteed to produce a handful of GOP U.S. House members.
But that red wall behind the “Orange Curtain” fell in 2018, frustrating Republicans and delighting Democrats who seemed to have finally gained a foothold in a region known for its coastal wealth and affinity for well-known conservatives, from John Wayne to former President Ronald Reagan.
“I feel like we have the Washington, D.C., tailwind; it’s really exciting,” said Ada Briceño, chair of the Democratic Party of Orange County. “We’ve done this before. In 2018, we took every congressional seat in Orange County. And every election cycle has been moving to go blue and bluer.”
Meanwhile, Randall Avila, executive director of The Republican Party of Orange County, and other Republicans in the region hope that what was old can be new again. One of their biggest targets is a possible flip of the 47th Congressional District, a seat being vacated by noted progressive Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who mounted an unsuccessful effort to fill the late Dianne Feinstein’s U.S. Senate seat.
The Cook Political Report, which rates which party is likely to win a given seat, suggested that the district leans Democratic but remains competitive. It’s one of four competitive races in a county that is home to parts of six House districts. Republicans now control Congress, though by only a handful of seats, making the races for the 47th District and neighboring districts critical.
In the 47th District, Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is set to face Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney and one-time California Assembly minority leader. Baugh first ran for the seat in 2022 after it was redrawn as part of decennial redistricting, becoming more conservative after Newport Beach and most of Huntington Beach were added to the district.
Neither candidate responded to emailed requests for comment from Capital & Main.
In 2022, Baugh was vastly outspent by Porter — about $28 million to $3 million — and lost by roughly 9,000 votes.
So far this time around, Baugh has raised about $2.9 million to Min’s $3.6 million, according to the nonprofit Open Secrets, which tracks campaign donations.
That narrowed spending gap is one of many factors giving Republicans hope they can take the seat, Avila said.
Democrats don’t see it quite that simply.
“It’s going to be exciting. The 47th is held by a champion, Katie Porter, and we will keep that with Dave Min,” Briceño said. “The path to the majority runs through Orange County, and the 47th is key to it.”
Avila said those earlier Democratic wins are owed in part to Republican complacency, which he said has since evaporated. The GOP now holds two of the six House seats in the county.
“After ’18, there was a lot of doom and gloom, a lot of wondering … What just happened?” he said. “We had a lot of retirements, and quite frankly, I don’t think we were prepared for what the Dems were about to seize on. Now it does feel like an opportunity we are about to seize on.”
That opportunity is a combination of Porter’s departure after her unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid and new candidates making four congressional districts competitive this year, he said.
Porter was first elected in 2018, but redistricting in 2022 left her scrambling to hold onto her Democrat-heavy Irvine community, along with more conservative coastal areas, including Huntington Beach.
The 47th District has gained considerable national attention with control of the GOP-led House likely to come down to just a few seats. A political action committee that is part of the conservative Club for Growth, a nonprofit that supports Republican candidates and focuses on tax cuts and other economic issues, endorsed Baugh as one of seven priority House races nationwide.
For some voters in the area, Porter’s reelection in the newly drawn district was a surprise they would prefer not to see repeat itself.
Richard Miller, 65, who runs a software engineering firm in the area, said he’s not a registered member of either party, choosing instead to vote “based on my principles.” He’d happily support a Democrat, he said, but those running don’t align with his views.
“I’m not a ‘Trumper’ or a ‘Never Trumper,’ but if the Dems win this they will be able to accelerate [immigration] if they have no one to stop them,” Miller said of the many issues facing the country that worry him. “It’s going to be a problem with Democrats in control. The Democrats are a machine, not necessarily a party.”
Miller and two friends were spending a recent afternoon in downtown Huntington Beach. They said they hoped their neighbors would return a Republican to office to represent the right-leaning beach city and surrounding districts to help control inflation and curb illegal immigration, among other things.
Jim Coons is a 75-year-old retired metal fabricator and artist from neighboring Fountain Valley, in the 45th Congressional District, who met up with Miller for coffee in Huntington Beach. He said he’s planning to vote Republican up and down the ticket in November.
“This isn’t about politics; it’s about life or death and your ability to survive,” he said. “We’re in a time where everything is boiling.”
Coons said he supports U.S. Rep. Michelle Steele, a two-term congresswoman and Republican who won the redrawn seat in the nearby 45th in 2022, and is confident his community will stay red. Steele is being challenged by Derek Tran, an attorney and business owner.
Across the region in recent years, voters have routinely split their votes, with some supporting former President Donald Trump while at the same time voting for Democratic House members. Others opted for President Joe Biden but voted for a Republican House member, often Trump loyalists.
The split tickets have offered a glimpse of some of the complicated political views of voters in the area.
Andrew Einhorn, a 71-year-old retired physical therapist and 40-year resident of Huntington Beach, offered an example of that divide on a recent afternoon at a weekly street festival on Main Street as he and several others collected signatures to force a special election to block a proposal to privatize the city’s libraries.
“We have an unrelenting and protective membership,” Einhorn said of his colleagues at a left-leaning nonprofit group called Protect Huntington Beach, which he said includes Republicans and Democrats alike.
Of Porter’s reelection in a district that included the conservative-leaning city, Einhorn said “she’s a really smart lady” who won over people from both sides of the aisle.
Danny Morris, a 69-year-old retiree and Democrat who was also collecting signatures for the library cause, said he was simultaneously proud of and nervous about the city and region’s likely effect on the political fate of the House.
“I’m somewhat optimistic, but I think it’s not going to be as close as they say,” Morris said, adding quickly, “but I don’t want to say that and have people stay home.”
In the nearby 45th Congressional District, Steele is aiming for reelection in an area that Biden won in 2020. That race is considered a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
For both, turnout is likely to be the key. Registered Democrats and Republicans are near even in the region, with roughly a third of registered voters not registered with either major party.
(Alicia A. Caldwell covered immigration for The Wall Street Journal, with a focus on everything from border security to the impacts of immigration inside the U.S. She joined the Journal from the Associated Press in August 2017. Alicia has reported on immigration since 2005. She is now based in Los Angeles and is a writer for CapitalandMain.com.)
