Warning! We Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet: California Faces Decades-Long Megadroughts

CLIMATE POLITICS--"Megadroughts" that last for decades are threatening to strike already parched California and other western U.S. states by the end of the century, a new study finds, with one model predicting that a drought lasting about 35 years may be a "near certainty."

A megadrought would bring back the devastating dustbowl conditions of the 1930s to California, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, but would last for a much longer period of time, according to the study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances. 

"Using a combination of temperature and precipitation models," the Guardian reports, "the study predicts a 70 percent chance of a megadrought by the end of the century, should rainfall levels remain the same, with a 90 percent chance of an elongated drought should rainfall decrease, as most climate models forecast."

"We can't rule out there could be a 99.9 percent chance of a megadrought, which makes it virtually certain," Toby Ault, a scientist at Cornell University and lead author of the study, told the Guardian.

"Historically, megadroughts were extremely rare phenomena occurring only once or twice per millennium," the study observes. "According to our analysis of modeled responses to increased [greenhouse gas emissions], these events could become commonplace if climate change goes unabated."

A map shows the rising risk of megadraughts corresponding to varying increases in global temperatures. (Image: Science Advances)

"With 4 degrees of warming, which is the rate the planet is currently heading for, megadroughts are almost a certainty," EcoWatch notes.

"A megadrought occurring again in the (California and the) Southwest in the coming decades would impose unprecedented stresses on water resources of the region, and recent studies have shown that they are far more likely to occur this century because of climate change compared to past centuries," write the study authors, scientists from Cornell University, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Indeed, California's six-year-long drought has already changed the landscape, according to the Guardian: "Areas of the Sierras have burned a few times and the forests aren't recruiting back, they are turning into grasslands and bush lands," Mark Schwartz, professor of environmental science at the University of California, told the newspaper.  

"Water availability is a deep issue for people living in the arid south-west," Schwartz added. "Megadroughts have the ability to dry up Lake Mead [which supplies water to Las Vegas] and hamper crops in southern California. We are doing a relatively poor job of allocating water efficiently. We need to get better at that."

"The new report does proffer a crumb of hope," the Guardian writes, "if greenhouse gas emissions are radically cut then the risk of megadrought will reduce by half, giving a roughly 50:50 chance that a multi-decade stretch of below-average rainfall would occur this century. But the research found that the emissions cuts would have to be far steeper than those agreed to by nations in Paris last year, where a 2C limit on warming was pledged."

"We would need a much more aggressive approach than proposed at Paris," Ault told the newspaper. "It's not too late to do this but the train is leaving the station as we speak."

(Nika Knight writes for Common Dreams … where this report was first posted.) Photo: Shever/flickr/cc

-cw

This Is Not About Donald Trump!

GUEST WORDS--This is not about Donald Trump. And I mean it.

From the moment the first scribe etched a paean of praise to Nebuchadnezzar into a stone tablet, it’s reasonable to conclude that never in history has the media covered a single human being as it has Donald Trump.

Read more ...

The Z-Man Sues the City and LAPD Chief Beck for $6 Million … and, Other Good Stuff

RANTZ & RAVEZ--While I am always on the lookout for good RaveZ to bring to your attention, I find very few in dealing with our City, County, State and Federal Governments. When I do find something of significance, I bring it to your attention. Well, I have three for you this week. 

  1. I begin with the DWP Air Conditioner Optimization Program. The Program deals with a FREE service of your Air Conditioner System by a Professional Air Conditioning Company contracted by the DWP. A professional technician from Mediterranean Heating and Air Conditioning inspected my home. In addition to a full 2-hour inspection, I received a new state of the art Nest Thermostat to control my air/heating system. This FREE program was sponsored by LA City Councilman Bob Blumenfield and approved by the City Council to soften the impact of the multi-year increase in the DWP rates. All costs of the program are paid for by the DWP. The program is scheduled to run for three years at a cost of $4.5 million a year to the DWP. 

If interested in this TOTALLY FREE service, contact the DWP A/C Optimization Program at (877) 427-0418. 

  1. Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer slams Wells Fargo for ripping off huge numbers of customers and over 450 United States Military Personnel. The San Francisco based Wells Fargo Bank was accused of ripping off thousands of customers by opening over 2 million fake accounts with bogus fees, and the repossession of private vehicles owned by United States Military Personnel. The company fired over 5,000 employees involved in these unethical actions and owes the following amounts of money to various organizations and individuals. In total, the amount is well over $200 Million. The specifics: 
  1. $100 Million to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. 
  2. The City and County of Los Angeles are due $50 million. This is the largest fine ever levied against a financial institution by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. 
  3. $35 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and untold figures owed to affected customers. 
  4. In addition, $10,000 to each of the military personnel that had their vehicles illegally reposed by Wells Fargo. 
  5. This story is not over and additional fines and sanctions are in the making on many levels from state and federal authorities. They say image is everything when it comes to consumers and products and services. What will the ultimate consequences be for Wells Fargo? Only time will tell. 

Congratulations to Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer and his staff for protecting the Los Angeles consumers. The next question is how many other banks utilized the Wells Fargo tactics to meet goals and earn bonuses. Time and future investigations will bring about the truth of this and related matters. I am sure we have not heard the last of this procedure by various banks. 

I can see Mike Feuer running for Los Angeles Mayor in the future. 

  1. A $6 Million lawsuit was filed in the Superior Court of the State of California for the County of Los Angeles, Central District with the author of RantZ and RaveZ, Dennis P. Zine (photo above left), and resident James Bibeau as Plaintiffs vs the City of Los Angeles and Charles Beck (photo at top right), Chief of Police vs the City of Los Angeles. This RaveZ concerns all Los Angeles taxpayers and has the impact of over $6 Million for the next three years. Being a former LAPD Supervisor, City Councilman, LA City Resident and local taxpayer, I found fault with the Rams Football Team receiving FREE LAPD security services for all home games. 

Within days of filing my lawsuit against the City of LA and Chief Beck, the Rams came forward and agreed to pay for security and related services at all home games played at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. 

With the shortage of LAPD Officers and great demand on police services, it was proper to implement legal action against the City of LA and Rams Football Team. If the city leaders were truly concerned about the taxpayers and public safety, they would have resolved this matter before agreeing to have the Rams return to Los Angeles. 

Remember that the Rams Football team is only going to be playing football at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for the next three seasons. After that time, the Rams will be moving to Inglewood and will play all home games at the new Inglewood $3 Billion Stadium. In the future, the City of Inglewood will be providing all public safety and related services to the Ram’s Football Team. With all the services provided by Inglewood, the tax revenues and related income will all benefit the City of Inglewood. 

There you go. Three cases of RaveZ for your consideration.

 

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If you have a RaveZ that you would like to share with our readers, please email the information to me at [email protected].  The most recent report showed that over 400,000 people reviewed my RantZ and RaveZ column. That is impact and a great opportunity to spread the word.

 

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With all the media focus and talk about the November Presidential Election, and the many ballot measures that are so confusing to most of us, who do you turn to where we can find the truth of the matter. Who is going to give you the straight facts, and nothing but the facts, on the various ballot measures. There is one source that is accurate and honest and to the point. That one reliable and trusting is none other then the RantZ and RaveZ. Recommendations coming in future editions as we approach the November Election.

(Dennis P. Zine is a 33-year member of the Los Angeles Police Department and former Vice-Chairman of the Elected Los Angeles City Charter Reform Commission, a 12-year member of the Los Angeles City Council and a current LAPD Reserve Officer who serves as a member of the Fugitive Warrant Detail assigned out of Gang and Narcotics Division. Disclosure: Zine was a candidate for City Controller last city election. He writes RantZ & RaveZ for CityWatch. You can contact him at [email protected]. Mr. Zine’s views are his own and do not reflect the views of CityWatch.)

-cw

Pan Am Equities: LA River Megadeveloper Gets Caught Lying to Atwater Village

OVER-DEVELOPMENT ONSLAUGHT-Billionaire Manhattan developers are proposing a surprise 419-unit apartment mega-project on the Los Angeles River -- next to a long-promised state park -- and recently explained themselves to the local community. They ended up showing quite a bit of contempt for Atwater Village and Glassell Park, the communities they seek to gentrify. 

The mega-development, dubbed “2800 Casitas” after the dead-end riverside street where the sprawling luxury housing would be shoe-horned, would radically remake the Glassell Park/Atwater Village community. As envisioned by developer Pan Am Equities, the massive project would dramatically impact a scenic and woodsy stretch of the LA River bird flyway, near a laid-back art-scene locale along the river, called the Bowtie. (Photo above.) 

Pan Am’s is among a frenzy of proposals that would shoulder aside LA’s lively civic discussions about re-greening the Los Angeles River, supplanting that public debate with developers’ private plans for dense, luxury “waterfront” housing in what are now working-class areas. 

Pan Am, owned by the billionaire Manocherian family, which owns 85 buildings in Manhattan alone, was drawn to LA by growing word that you can buy Los Angeles land, get the local land zoning tossed out in a backroom deal at City Hall, and then build as big -- and as inappropriately -- as you want. 

Having already held backroom meetings with City Hall leaders, Pan Am Equities was trying hard to win over the Atwater Village Neighborhood Council’s Environmental and Land-use Committee, by sending a local, Atwater Village architect, Mark Motonaga, to speak at its September meeting at Christ’s Church. 

Motonaga is a principal with Rios Clementi Hale Studios, the mega-project’s designer. Because Motonaga was filling in for the Manhattan developer, he had to repeatedly turn to Pan Am representative Reed Garwood -- sitting in the third pew of the chapel -- to answer questions.

And that’s when Garwood told the ugly fib, that Pan Am Equities’ plan was purely preliminary.

In fact, Garwood blithely assured Atwater Village and Glassell Park residents that Pan Am hadn’t even filed an application for a land zoning change. 

That wasn’t even close to the truth. 

Atwater area resident Cheryll Roberts held up Pan Am’s detailed, 90-page, land-rezoning application submitted to the city and chimed in, “Yeah, you did. I have it right here.” 

Ninety pages long -- hard for a developer to deny they’d already filed it with Los Angeles City officials. 

Pan Am wants to jack up the zoning from a furniture storage and shipping building to a far more intensive and river-impacting round-the-clock use: several hundred humans and their several hundred vehicles, wedged next to a supposedly coming public river park. 

The Coalition to Preserve LA is sponsoring the Neighborhood Integrity Initiative on the March 7, 2017 ballot to protect communities like Atwater Village and Glassell Park from wildly inappropriate land-zoning changes known as “spot zoning.” 

The once-denigrated LA River, one of the nation’s most important bird flyways and a rare natural resource for the entire Los Angeles public, is now among the most-threatened land in LA.

The Coalition has pressed Mayor Eric Garcetti to end ex parte (backroom) meetings between developers and City Hall politicians that cater to developer greed and terrible planning like 2800 Casitas. 

Nobody disputes that by the time residents in places like Atwater Village hear of a project such as 2800 Casitas, backroom deals have already been made between the developer, local LA City Council members and planning officials. The public is cut out entirely, until far down the road.

At the meeting, residents from Atwater and nearby were shown a slide presentation and artists’ renditions of buildings soaring as high as 85 feet, prompting them to question how this out-of-character-development on the banks of the Los Angeles River could possibly represent smart planning. 

Everyone questioned the tall boxes along the river and near charming old neighborhoods of architecturally interesting one- and two-story homes. At more than 60 housing units per acre, on 5.7 acres, 2800 Casitas would set a major precedent, encouraging a luxury housing stampede of developers demanding zoning riverfront changes from the local LA City Council members. 

Pan Am’s big buildings “look like a fortress,” as one community member remarked, while others questioned the intelligence of creating a giant community on a small dead-end road. 

“Have you talked to the fire department about this?” Committee Chairman Larry Hafetz asked. “There generally has to be two outlets.” 

With a nod to the nearby active Hollywood Earthquake Fault that travels along Los Feliz Boulevard and runs deep into Atwater Village, resident Diahanne Payne said: “What if the 2 Freeway (on the proposed mega-project’s north border) collapses? People would be trapped. I’ve got a problem with that. 419 units means 840 cars or so. That’s an access problem. God help the poor suckers who live on Casitas Street.” 

And the proposed buildings, Payne said, “Look like tenement buildings, no matter how much green you add to the walls.” She meant the developer’s plan to somehow mask the huge structures with vines. 

Larry Hafetz cited two other communities now fighting the gridlock and neighborhood destruction brought on by LA’s City-Hall encouraged luxury housing frenzy. According to warnings by the city’s housing department, the overdevelopment has left a huge 15% vacancy rate in all LA luxury housing built in the past decade. 

Hafetz said: “The community needs to be preserved. This is not Hollywood or Silver Lake. Our community is the river. Density is going to be a hard sell.” 

(David Futch writes for 2PreserveLA.org. Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

Orwellian Logic: When Illegal Signs are Really Legal

BILLBOARD WATCH-In April of this year, the Los Angeles Department of Building and Safety issued a permit for temporary construction fence signs at the site of a church on Lincoln Blvd. in Venice. Those signs have since advertised movies, TV shows, and Airbnb to an audience of motorists on one of the most gridlocked thoroughfares on the west side of the city. 

Lincoln Blvd. is also a Community Design Overlay (CDO) District, with standards and regulations that include a ban on new billboards and off-site signs. Since none of the signs plastered on some 200 ft. of plywood attached to a chain link fence at the edge of the church property have advertised products or activities available at the church, they’re clearly off-site signs and thus prohibited by the CDO. 

So why would the building department issue a permit for those signs? Before that permit was handed to the sign company, the City Planning Department had to provide a “clearance” attesting to the fact that the signs wouldn’t conflict with any zoning regulations. So one might think that the CDO’s ban on off-site signs would have prompted a thumbs down on the permit. 

But no. The planning department issued the clearance on the grounds that the off-site sign ban in the citywide sign ordinance contains an exception for temporary signs, and that this exception applies to the Lincoln Blvd. CDO.

This makes sense only if facts are ignored and logic twisted. One, the sign permits were issued under a special ordinance allowing advertising signs on fences surrounding construction sites and vacant lots. These signs at construction sites can remain for the duration of the site’s building permit or two years, whichever is less, and there are specific limits on their size, number, and spacing. 

In contrast, signs permitted under the citywide sign code’s temporary sign exception can only remain for 30 days at a time, with a cumulative annual limit of 90 days. There are also size limits that are proportional to the street frontage of the property. 

The total square footage of the signs at the church property on Lincoln Blvd is considerably greater than that allowed under the temporary signs provision of the citywide sign code. And the signs have violated both the 30-day limit and the 90-day annual limit. Yet the building department has declined to cite those violations because the signs comply with the provisions of the permit issued under the ordinance that allows signs on construction walls. 

Confused yet? 

The signs violate the CDO’s ban on off-site signs and they violate the size and time limits of the temporary sign regulations, yet the two responsible city agencies regard them as legal. 

In other words, black is white and up is down. 

To add insult to injury, the Lincoln Blvd. CDO also has design standards stating that fences and walls should not front Lincoln Blvd., and any such fences required by code should be no more than 42 inches high. These provisions are intended to enhance the visual quality and the pedestrian friendliness of the boulevard. 

The plywood wall that provides the backing for the church property signs is eight feet high

Furthermore, there is no sign of any construction activity at the site, which includes the church, a separate auditorium building, and a parking lot.

 

(Dennis Hathaway is the president of the Ban Billboard Blight Coalition and a CityWatch contributor. He can be reached at: [email protected].) Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

Measure M and the Beneficial Domino Effect

ALPERN AT LARGE--In my last CityWatch article, I recommended a "NO" vote for just about every tax measure this November based on the fact that the new funds would be poorly spent.  The big exception, of course, is Measure M--because the money and projects are well-defined, and well-vetted by the taxpayers of LA County. 

We do NOT want to "feed the beast" of unsustainable pension/benefits of public sector officials and workers who perform vital jobs but are being reimbursed and pensioned at a level we just can't continue to fund.  After all, are California (particularly LA County) residents paying less or MORE than the rest of the nation? 

And are we getting a good "bang for our buck" with respect to what our taxes pay for? 

But the reason why the schools and "general fund" taxes and bonds should be rejected is that we don't know where the money is going, while the opposite is true for Measure M. 

Opponents of Measure M are people who, for the most part, should be listened to and worked with for years to come.  Metro's come a long way since the crazy-spending of the 1990's, and there are a lot of good reasons why Caltrans let Metro take over and/or finish local freeway projects--in short, Metro typically spends their money well, and is a model for adhering to its budget. 

A model that school districts, water districts, and other public sector/sphere jurisdictions would do well to emulate. 

But with Measure M--as with the previously-passed Measure R in 2008--there will be a domino effect of MORE money coming into LA County from Sacramento and Washington. 

LA is no longer last but among the first when it comes to federal and state eyes and wallets opening to support a county "that has its act together".  And, of course, a county willing to put its money where its mouth is. 

The "Friends of the Green Line" project that started shortly after 9/11 found that the critical LAX/Metro Rail connection now funded by Metro with a 2024 due date (LINK: ) will happen faster if Measure M passes … call it the Measure M Domino Effect: 

1) South Bay residents would want "in" to the Green Line/LAX connection 

2) Increased interest in a Norwalk Green Line/Metrolink connection would occur that might bring in dollars from both Orange and Riverside counties 

3) Westsiders and Downtowners would want better access to the LAX/Metro Rail connection as well, facilitating interest in extensions via Lincoln and Sepulveda Blvds. 

Similarly, there would be a Domino Effect for the Foothill Gold Line, which would be funded by Measure M not only to Claremont (the eastern edge of L.A. County in the Inland Empire) but to Montclair in San Bernardino County.  That brings that county on board, particularly if the line were to be advocated for extension to Ontario Airport, and/or with more Metrolink connections. 

Would there be an increased effort to connect Orange County with any Santa Ana Pacific Electric Rail Right of Way to the Southeast LA County cities and the Green Line?  Probably--the 405 freeway isn't getting any lighter with respect to traffic, and Orange County residents would certainly want a better way to access Downtown. 

So enter another Domino Effect

And the more these projects get promoted, the more that federal and state matching funds could be achieved, allowing Metro to work their way down the list to build these projects (including Metro projects in the South Bay, Southeast LA County Cities, the San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys, and the like) to fulfill the needs of ALL LA County residents. 

Domino Effects are usually negative, and not desired, by taxpayers...yet it does appear that Measure M has the strong potential (and strong likelihood, based on our experience with Measure R in 2008) to create a positive and favorable Domino Effect

Hence Measure M deserves our consideration, and our vote, come this November. 

And if Measure M passes this November, any work done to expedite transportation improvements throughout the county, and/or to fine tune Metro's priorities, could begin in earnest the very next day.

 

(Ken Alpern is a Westside Village Zone Director and Board member of the Mar Vista Community Council (MVCC), previously co-chaired its Planning and Outreach Committees, and currently is Co-Chair of its MVCC Transportation/Infrastructure Committee. He is co-chair of the CD11Transportation Advisory Committee and chairs the nonprofit Transit Coalition, and can be reached at  [email protected]. He also co-chairs the grassroots Friends of the Green Line at www.fogl.us. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Mr. Alpern.)

-cw 

 

 

 

 

Kamala vs. Loretta: The Worst Debate in History

ELECTION 2016--Despite her self-regarding belief, Barbara Boxer has not exactly been a paragon of political achievement in the U.S. Senate — but c’mon is this really the best a state of 39 million people can do in finding a replacement?

Not since the tap dancing George Murphy and the tam o’shanter-styling S.I. Hayakawa squatted in California’s seats in the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body have there been two Mickey Mouse lightweights as insubstantial as 2016 Senate wannabes Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez.

So we guess it was appropriate that the one and only faceoff between the Democratic dynamic duo Wednesday night was the lamest so-called debate in memory, Or at least since the 2016 vice-presidential contenders parleyed the night before.

A dilettante’s delight: The ABC7-produced event in LA was, and let us put this as politely as possible, a bloody muddle: a panel of three, amateur-night questioners competed for time with a batch of pre-recorded Real People (some of whom could not be heard by the rivals in the studio) to pose the most insipid inquiries possible, while OCD-stricken moderator Marc Brown continuously refused to let the candidates finish sentences, apparently concerned there wouldn’t be time left for the crucial performance of a troupe of trapeze artists waiting in the wings.

At one point, one of the three panelists (we omit Janis Hirohama’s name to spare her family embarrassment) actually asked Harris and Sanchez “what committees would you like to serve on?” Yuck.

In the end, sigh, Harris’s banalities and clichés trumped Rep. Sanchez’s squeaky prattling and saccharine babbling, and Kamala was the only one on the stage who at least had the poise and appearance of a U.S. Senator.

Three key takeaways:

Where were Willon, Cadelago and Marinucci? Egghead Raphael Sonenshein of the (all rise) Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State LA; League of Women Voters goo-goo Hirohama and ABC7 general assignment reporter Adrienne Alpert all are, no doubt, very nice people who are routinely kind to dogs and curtain crawlers. Not one, alas, is a professional political reporter who is actually, um, covering the Senate race.

So instead of benefiting from beat reporters who know what they’re talking about, and who might have asked at least one – one, for the love of God, one! – follow-up question, we were subjected to this trio of worthies earnestly reading her or his list of shallow questions conscientiously prepared in study hall. That’s not to mention moderator Brown, who seemed to think the 12 people who actually tuned into the affair did so to hear him bellow “your time is up,” any time either Kamala or Loretta came close to expressing a complete thought. Secret memo to Marc: the fans don’t come to the game to watch the umpires.

Queen of the platitude: Harris was alternately arrogant, condescending, weak-kneed and pandering. Some examples of her soaring rhetoric: On water: “We must have a conversation around this” (A conversation? Really? Hint, hint: California’s been having a “conversation” on water since before the Bear Flag Republic. No word yet on any progress). On fighting terrorism: “We have to be smart and tough” (now don’t get too far out on a limb there, General). On U.S.-Russia relations: (“I believe that Russia poses a serious threat to our country” (Ooh). Also: we hereby demand a moratorium on using the word “unpack” unless you’re talking about removing the contents of a suitcase. Big upside: she speaks in complete sentences.

Word salad Sanchez: For her part, Sanchez was smarmy, scatterbrained, snarling and sarcastic. At least her self-dramatic digressions were long-winded. To her credit, she did roll out an entertaining series of creative gestures to distract from her semi-coherent verbal frolics, at one point forming a little hand puppet mouth while saying that Kamala was all talk and no action, and, at another, shooing the air in her foe’s direction, like a fairy princess dismissing the wicked witch from her kingdom. Sadly for Sanchez, Harris totally clobbered her on her truly lousy House attendance record.

Bottom line: Neither candidate did anything that will change a race now shaped as a Harris win. As a practical matter, it wouldn’t matter anyway, since either of them would fill the Boxer space in the Senate of predictable, reflexive support and fist-shaking on behalf of every liberal Democratic interest group in the state. Good times, CTA, trial lawyers and SEIU!

What a pair.

Full disclosure: we watched this horror show with one eye focused on the Giants memorable wild card win over the Mets. However: the most recent PPIC poll reported that a fourth of likely voters said they might not cast ballots in this one. And, despite our long and impeccable citizenship records – we’re the only two people in California who actually show up for jury duty – we’re tempted to join them.

(Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine … long time journalists … publish the award-winning CalBuzz.com

-cw

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