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This article was produced by the nonprofit journalism publication Capital & Main. It is co-published here with permission.
ELECTION 2024 - Ryan Sanders is the kind of voter whose support may ultimately decide the presidential race. A resident of Erie County in Pennsylvania, Sanders describes himself as “middle of the road”: He leans conservative, but he also said he tends to oscillate between either side of the center. In his early 40s, he’s young, like many swing voters. And above all, he said he wants a presidential candidate who is “honest” — a trait consistently prized by those who remain undecided.
There’s at least one thing that separates Sanders from other swing voters, though — a proud member of Sheet Metal Workers Local 12, he’s president of the Erie-Crawford Central Labor Council (CLC), the local arm of the AFL-CIO.
Election analysts say Vice President Kamala Harris’ easiest path to victory may run through Pennsylvania, with its critical 19 electoral votes. The state has 750,000 union members — more than enough to swing the state, which Trump won by fewer than 50,000 votes in 2016. Unions are mobilizing members and their households to turn out, believing their votes will be decisive. As union members have drifted away from overwhelmingly supporting Democrats, voters like Sanders represent a key segment of the working-class voters the Harris campaign is counting on swaying.
Unions still remain strongly tied to the Democratic Party, and in their heyday, Sanders’ union ties may have predicted his vote. But declining membership over the past few decades has lessened the influence of union membership in public life. The U.S. partisan divide has crept into unions, and many voters no longer think their union identities affect their votes at all.
“There are a significant number of swing union members,” especially in Pennsylvania, said Steve Rosenthal, president of The Organizing Group, which consults with unions. He notes that according to 2020 exit polling, roughly 49% of union households in Pennsylvania voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, compared to 62% in Michigan and 59% in Wisconsin, also battleground states with deep union traditions.
Unions are spending millions of dollars to mobilize union workers to vote for Harris. Labor councils like the Erie-Crawford CLC play a key role, as they are tasked with local community engagement.
Even though he is undecided, as president of the CLC, Sanders has canvassed voters as part of the AFL-CIO’s election push in support of Harris. Sanders is a team player, but he said he believes canvassing is not very effective, as he thinks most people’s minds are already made up.
“It’s just information,” he said with a wave of his hand.
(Kalena Thomhave is a writing fellow at The American Prospect. This article was first featured in Capital & Main.)
