---

 [ PLANNING WATCH LA ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=398)

#  How Bad Will Conditions Get?

January 12 2023

Written by Dick Platkin.

<a class="a2a_button_facebook"></a><a class="a2a_button_twitter"></a><a class="a2a_button_email"></a><a class="a2a_button_print"></a>[](https://www.addtoany.com/share)

PLANNING WATCH - No one knows exactly how hard life will become in the Los Angeles region, but these trends give us an idea.

- **Climate change is appearing** as more wildfires, heat and cold waves, bomb cyclone/atmospheric river storms and floods, mega-droughts, sea-level rise, and landslides. Other than immediate disaster relief, the response of state and local governments is minimal, even though many climate impacts will soon reach [the point of no return](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/have-we-passed-the-point-of-no-return-on-climate-change/).
- **Earthquakes** are an obvious threat, and it is only a question of time until more “big ones,” like the 1994 Northridge earthquake,
- happen again.
- **Civil disturbances,** such as LA’s ghetto rebellion of 1965 and multi-racial uprising of 1992, are likely to appear again, with their enormous toll on people and property.

But wait, more gloom and doom is in the wings. There is no shortage of human-made disasters likely to happen Los Angeles and other US cities:

- The United States, with **4 percent of the world’s population, has, so far, experienced over 1.1 million Covid-19 deaths.** This is 15 percent of the world’s total.
- **Homelessness and overcrowding is getting worse**, and the Reaganesque supply-side response of most US cities and states is the deregulation of zoning, planning, and environmental laws. While public officials, cheered on by real estate investors, academics, local media, and lobbyists, mistakenly contend that deregulation increases the supply of low-priced housing and therefore reduces homelessness, these remedies make the housing crisis worse.

- **Investment in critical urban infrastructure is too little and too late.** The best measure of infrastructure disinvestment comes from the American Society of Civil Engineers. Its latest California report confirms that the state is in appalling shape. Roads, energy, waterways, levees, rail, and stormwater all scored D’s. The remaining categories, like bridges, drinking water, and transit only earned C’s.

**![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Jan-2023/004d1.jpg)**

**Other bad news.** Planning and monitoring of local infrastructure barely exists in Los Angeles. LA’s [General Plan element for Infrastructure](https://planning.lacity.org/odocument/c9dd48c1-d9ed-4569-a448-74216c30cfe1/Infastructure_Systems.pdf) is 50 years old and only addresses refuse collection. The General Plan element for [Public Facilities](https://planning.lacity.org/odocument/43319adf-80e9-4080-8d1d-ed7b3d3e2607/Public%20Facilities.pdf) is 53 years old and limits itself to historical monuments. City Hall’s Bureau of Engineering’s program for sidewalk repair will take 30 years to complete but depends on future funding.

**Chalmers Johnson:** To make sense of these trends, I have turned to the work of [Prof. Chalmers Johnson,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalmers_Johnson) a UC Berkeley and UC San Diego historian. His trilogy on the growing militarism and corresponding decline of the American empire is based on *blowback*, the unintended domestic consequences of foreign wars. Since Prof. Johnson’s death in 2010, his trilogy could be updated with the latest data on climate disruption, the Pentagon’s staggering [$858 billion budget](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/16/us/politics/congress-defense-bill-military.html), a total US security budget of [$1.4 trillion](https://scheerpost.com/2022/07/08/americas-1-4-trillion-national-security-budget-makes-us-ever-less-safe/), and post-2010 foreign military expenditures and wars in Pakistan, Somalia, Libya, Uganda and Kenya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Ukraine. The latter is the most expensive of all. The U.S. Congress has already doled out [$105 billion](https://www.csis.org/analysis/aid-ukraine-explained-six-charts), nearly twice Russia’s annual military budget of [$66 billion](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203160/military-expenditure-russia/).

Johnson’s thesis was that when large empires decline, they devote increasing resources to foreign wars, both direct and by-proxy. He thinks US decline dates back to the 1970s, when the US lost the Vietnam War. After that, US decline accelerated with its failed invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. This is from Johnson’s Nemesis, the third book in his trilogy.

*“To maintain our empire abroad requires resources and commitments that will inevitably undercut our domestic democracy and, in the end, produce a military dictatorship or its civilian equivalent. . . . The combination of huge standing armies, almost continuous wars, military Keynesianism, and ruinous military expenses have destroyed our republican structure in favor of an imperial presidency. We are on the cusp of losing our democracy for the sake of keeping our empire. Once a nation is started down that path, the dynamics that apply to all empires come into play – isolation, overstretch, the uniting of forces opposed to imperialism, and bankruptcy.“*

Johnson wrote that blowback results from imperial overreach and takes several forms: bankruptcy, failing infrastructure and public services, and authoritarianism. This is why Johnson expected the United States to implode by the mid-21st Century. If he is correct, we would eventually get used to homelessness and disease, decrepit streets and sidewalks, and piles of garbage. As these conditions worsened, most of us would accept them as normal, similar to the way [mass surveillance](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203160/military-expenditure-russia/) and [mass incarceration](https://www.sentencingproject.org/research/) have faded into the background, *until daily life became impossible* and people pushed back.

**Human agency:** Of course, historical predictions like these are informed guesses. So many variables are in play that they are rarely accurate. One of the most difficult-to-predict factors is *human agency: the organized and individual responses of people to threatening events*. In fact, there is nothing new about this. For example, in the previous century, few analysts anticipated World Wars I and II, much less the human agency they unleashed in the form of the Russian and Chinese revolutions.

At best we can see the broad trends and hope we understand the board arc of history well enough to intelligently respond to them, instead of passively allowing events to envelope us, our families, and our communities.

*(Dick Platkin is a former Los Angeles city planner who reports on local planning issues for CityWatchLA. He serves on the board of United Neighborhoods for Los Angeles* [*(UN4LA)*](http://un4la.com/index.html)*. Previous Planning Watch columns are available at the* [*CityWatchLA archives*](https://www.citywatchla.com/index.php/component/search/?searchword=PLatkin&ordering=newest&searchphrase=all&limit=0)*. Please send questions and corrections to* [*rhplatkin@gmail.com*](mailto:rhplatkin@gmail.com)*.)* Photo above: Damage to Santa Monica Freeway caused by the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

 [ ![save up to 4000 on used evs](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/LADWP/dwp%20ev%20ad2.png) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/107 "LA DWP | Save $4K, Green | Priority Ad")

 [ ![Donna Tryfman](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/ADS%20FOR%202026/Donna-Tryfman-Ad-Final-Complete-Border-White-Margin.png) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/98 "Donna Tryfman - HS1-1")

 [ ![LA DWP #2 (Pay Your Bill Help)](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/LADWP/dwp%20level%20pay%205-7-25.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/82 "LA DWP #2 (Pay Your Bill Help)")

 [ ![David DeJute Campaign](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/ADS%20FOR%202026/DejuteAd.png) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/111 "David DeJute Campaign")

 [ ![Pay Water Bill Help](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/LADWP/dwp%20-%20cares-ad.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/97 "Home - LA DWP #2 (Pay Water Bill Help)")

 [ ![Anna Reitano Vertical R. Col](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/ADS%20FOR%202026/reitano%20vertical%20rework.png) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/component/banners/click/112 "Anna Reitano Vertical R. Col")

 ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/banners/signup-for-cw.png)

## Get The News In Your Email Inbox Mondays &amp; Thursdays

 Website

 ---

##  Featured CityWatch Stories

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/4d/073e-4dc54bff.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33336:may-day-international-workers-day-a-major-us-holiday-ignored-by-the-media&catid=398)

### [May Day/International Workers Day, a Major US Holiday Ignored By The Media](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33336:may-day-international-workers-day-a-major-us-holiday-ignored-by-the-media&catid=398)

PLANNING WATCH - Monday, September 7, 2026, was Labor Day, a holiday only celebrated in the United States and Canada as…

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/8c/074h-8ccaaf79.png) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33349:l-a-county-faces-a-government-shake-up&catid=312)

### [L.A. County Faces a Government Shake-Up](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33349:l-a-county-faces-a-government-shake-up&catid=312)

WESTSIDE - Currently larger than 40 states in terms of population with roughly 10 million residents, Los Angeles County…

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/17/074g-17fdff1c.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33346:before-we-ask-god-to-judge-us-the-jewish-people-must-judge-ourselves&catid=375)

### [Before We Ask God to Judge Us, the Jewish People Must Judge Ourselves](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33346:before-we-ask-god-to-judge-us-the-jewish-people-must-judge-ourselves&catid=375)

Yom Kippur demands more than personal repentance. At a defining moment for Jews everywhere, it asks whether we have tru…

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/12/073d-1253ced3.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33338:quid-pro-no&catid=378)

### [QUID PRO NO](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33338:quid-pro-no&catid=378)

MY VIEW - Quid pro quo: Latin for “this for that.” English for “bribe.” In Assemblymember Schiavo-speak: quid pro no—“N…

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/media/yootheme/cache/09/073i-0998df2d.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33330:cd3-doesnt-need-another-promise-it-needs-a-councilmember-who-can-deliver&catid=401)

### [CD3 Doesn’t Need Another Promise It Needs a Councilmember Who Can Deliver](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33330:cd3-doesnt-need-another-promise-it-needs-a-councilmember-who-can-deliver&catid=401)

THE BOTTOM LINE - Los Angeles voters have heard the promises before: safer streets, cleaner neighborhoods, more housing…

---

##  [ PLANNING WATCH LA ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=398)

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Sept-2026/073e.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33336:may-day-international-workers-day-a-major-us-holiday-ignored-by-the-media&catid=398)### [May Day/International Workers Day, a Major US Holiday Ignored By The Media](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33336:may-day-international-workers-day-a-major-us-holiday-ignored-by-the-media&catid=398)

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Sept-2026/071h.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33306:the-housing-shortage-myth-fabricated-by-developers&catid=398)### [The Housing Shortage Myth Fabricated By Developers](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33306:the-housing-shortage-myth-fabricated-by-developers&catid=398)

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Aug-2026/066b.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33238:the-2028-olympics-will-make-las-homeless-and-overcrowding-crises-much-worse&catid=398)### [The 2028 Olympics Will Make LA’s Homeless and Overcrowding Crises Much Worse ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33238:the-2028-olympics-will-make-las-homeless-and-overcrowding-crises-much-worse&catid=398)

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/July-2026/056f.png) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33045:temperature-increases-are-more-dangerous-than-expensive-gasoline&catid=398)### [Temperature Increases Are More Dangerous Than Expensive Gasoline](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=33045:temperature-increases-are-more-dangerous-than-expensive-gasoline&catid=398)

 [ ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/June-2026/050b.jpg) ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=32927:sb-79-developments-in-los-angeles-another-failing-effort-from-sacramento&catid=398)### [SB 79 developments in Los Angeles: Another failing effort from Sacramento](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=32927:sb-79-developments-in-los-angeles-another-failing-effort-from-sacramento&catid=398)
<div data-id="1" 
	class="eb-inst eb-hide eb-emailform eb-1 eboxContentLocker"
	data-options='{"trigger":"onPageLoad","trigger_selector":"","delay":3000,"early_trigger":true,"scroll_depth":"percentage","scroll_depth_value":80,"firing_frequency":1,"reverse_scroll_close":true,"threshold":0,"close_out_viewport":false,"exit_timer":1000,"idle_time":10000,"close_on_esc":false,"animation_open":"slideInDown","animation_close":"fadeOutDown","animation_duration":400,"disable_page_scroll":true,"test_mode":false,"debug":false,"ga_tracking":true,"ga_tracking_id":"G-P16BQ7X1SW","ga_tracking_event_category":"EngageBox","ga_tracking_event_label":"Box #1 - Global Email Signup Form","auto_focus":false}'
	data-type='popup'
	>

	<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-outside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>
	<div class="eb-dialog eb-formVer" role="dialog" aria-modal="true" id="dialog1" aria-label="dialog1">
		
		<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-inside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>	
		<div class="eb-container">
						<div class="eb-content">
				
<form action="https://citywatchla.us2.list-manage.com/subscribe/post?u=34d69f33624fd058ee9b56516&amp;id=4bfa422f51&amp;f_id=00d6c2e1f0" class="eb" method="post" id="mcform-1" name="mcform-1" target="_blank">
			<div class="eb-form-header"><p><img src="/images/2023/06/be-a-city-watcher.png" alt="be a city watcher" width="350" height="97" loading="lazy" data-path="local-images:/2023/06/be-a-city-watcher.png"></p>
<p>Sign up to receive our special e-news blasts on Monday and Thursday evenings!</p></div>
	
					<div class="eb-field-row">

			
			
			
			<input class="eb-input" type="email" name="EMAIL"  placeholder="Email address"  id="EMAIL" value="" required>

			
		</div>
										
	<div class="eb-footer">
    	<button class="eb-btn" type="submit" name="subscribe" style="background-color:rgba(93, 183, 93, 1);color:rgba(255, 255, 255, 1)">
    		Sign up    	</button>
    </div>
</form>			</div>
		</div>
	</div>	
</div>
<div data-id="3" 
	class="eb-inst eb-hide eb-yesno eb-3 "
	data-options='{"trigger":"onScrollDepth","trigger_selector":"","delay":0,"early_trigger":false,"scroll_depth":"percentage","scroll_depth_value":80,"firing_frequency":2,"reverse_scroll_close":false,"threshold":0,"close_out_viewport":false,"exit_timer":1000,"idle_time":1000,"close_on_esc":false,"animation_open":"fadeInUp","animation_close":"fadeOut","animation_duration":300,"disable_page_scroll":false,"test_mode":false,"debug":false,"ga_tracking":true,"ga_tracking_id":"G-P16BQ7X1SW","ga_tracking_event_category":"EngageBox","ga_tracking_event_label":"Box #3 - Yes \/ No Donation Popup Box","auto_focus":false}'
	data-type='popup'
	>

	<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-outside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>
	<div class="eb-dialog " role="dialog" aria-modal="true" id="dialog3" aria-label="dialog3">
		
		<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-inside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>	
		<div class="eb-container">
						<div class="eb-content">
				
<div class="ebox-yes-no">
	<div class="ebox-yn-text">
		
		
		<div class="ebox-yn-headline" style="font-size:22px;color:#888888">
			<p>If you only give once a month, would you consider giving to CityWatch?</p>
<p>Your support fuels our mission to promote and facilitate civic engagement and neighborhood empowerment, and to hold area government and its politicians accountable.</p>
<p>Would you like to help? Even if you can only give $5, it will make a difference.</p>		</div>
			</div>
	
	<div class="ebox-ys-buttons" style="font-size: 16px;">
		
<a
					data-ebox-prevent="0"
		data-ebox-cmd="close"
				target="_self"
		href="https://www.citywatchla.com/donate"
		rel="noopener"
	
	
	
	
	class="ebox-ys-btn"
	style="background-color:#2ec664;color:#ffffff;min-width:100px">
	Yes
	</a>
<a
	
	
			data-ebox-cmd="close"
		href="#"
	
	
	class="ebox-ys-btn"
	style="background-color:#ef2345;color:#ffffff;min-width:100px">
	Not Right Now
	</a>	</div>

	</div>			</div>
		</div>
	</div>	
</div>