#  CA Gov’s Race: And Then There Were 2 … Already

     Details    Dan Walters   ![logo](https://mail.citywatchla.com//templates/ja_teline_v/images/logo.png)         February 19 2018      [  ![](https://mail.citywatchla.com/images/stories/Feb-2018/015u.png)    ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/los-angeles/14921-ca-gov-s-race-and-then-there-were-2-already)

  [LOS ANGELES](https://mail.citywatchla.com/los-angeles)   - [  Previous Article **How NOT to Reform Government: A Statewide Initiative that Failed** ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14925:how-not-to-reform-government-a-statewide-initiative-that-failed&catid=312)
- [  Next Article **What If CA's Affordable Housing and Homeless Crises Were a Big Fat Lie?** ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14913:what-if-ca-s-affordable-housing-and-homeless-crises-were-a-big-fat-lie&catid=312)

  ###### Typography

- [](# "Smaller Font")  ****Smaller** **Small** **Medium** **Big** **Bigger****  [](# "Bigger Font")
- [](# "Previous Font Style")  ****Default** **Helvetica** **Segoe** **Georgia** **Times****  [](# "Next Font Style")

- [ Reading Mode](# "Reading Mode")

> <a class="a2a_button_facebook"></a><a class="a2a_button_twitter"></a><a class="a2a_button_email"></a><a class="a2a_button_print"></a>[](https://www.addtoany.com/share)
>
>  [Comments](#disqus_thread)

>
>
>
> CAL MATTERS--Well folks, it looks like we may have an old-fashioned, down-to-the-wire political race this year for governor, something Californians haven’t seen for quite a few years.

 Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, has pulled into a virtual tie with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the long-time frontrunner, in the [latest statewide poll](http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/s-118mbs.pdf) by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Newsom’s standing in PPIC’s polling hasn’t budged much in the last year. He was at 22 percent among likely voters last May; 23 percent in September; 26 percent in December and then dropped back to 23 percent in PPIC’s January poll.

Meanwhile, Villaraigosa, just 17 percent in May and 12 percent in September, clawed back to 17 percent in December and climbed to 21 percent in January.

Most interestingly, the two Democrats are in a dead heat at 32 percent each among Democratic voters, erasing Newsom’s 12 percent lead in December and indicating that next weekend’s Democratic state convention in San Diego could be very lively.

State Treasurer John Chiang, another Democrat, remains stuck in single digits, as do Democrat Delaine Eastin and all three of the Republican hopefuls.

Amanda Renteria, a former Hillary Clinton aide who has been working for Attorney General Xavier Becerra, also pulled papers to run last week, but isn’t in the polling mix yet, of course.

She has the potential of taking some Latino voter support from Villaraigosa, but the gap between the two frontrunners and everyone else is immense. Unless she or one of the other current also-rans can pull off a miracle, it’s likely that Newsom and Villaraigosa will be the June primary election’s top two vote-getters and then face each other in November for the governorship.

The Newsom-Villaraigosa duel has tightened as the two frontrunners have sharpened their ideological differences.

Newsom, who came into politics as a pro-business moderate, has shifted to the left, embracing the uber-liberal Berniecrat wing of the Democratic Party and its agenda, such as universal health care.

Meanwhile, Villaraiogosa, a one-time labor union organizer, has hewed closer to the centerline of the state as a whole, clearly looking ahead to November.

Villaraigosa’s positioning was highlighted last week when he gained endorsements from police organizations, while Newsom’s was underscored by an endorsement from the very liberal Service Employees International Union. He also has support from the California Nurses Association, which has pushed for universal health care and been the Berniecrat wing’s most visible patron.

If, as now seems increasingly likely, Newsom and Villaraigosa are destined for a head-to-head duel, the early ideological positioning could be the key factor.

Newsom seems to be betting that the antipathy to President Trump is so fierce in California and such a motivating factor that embracing the Democratic left will be an advantage. However, he should be worried that after years of official and unofficial campaigning, he’s still favored by less than a quarter of the state’s likely voters.

Villaraigosa, meanwhile, is betting on California’s history over the past several decades of electing more-or-less centrist governors, including the man both hope to succeed, Jerry Brown. His dramatic rise in the polls could open the wallets of potential campaign donors and give him the wherewithal to make it a real horse race.

*(Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 57 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He has written more than 9,000 columns about California and its politics. This Walters perspective originated at* [CalMatters ](https://calmatters.org/articles/commentary/commentary-browns-worries-killing-californias-golden-geese/)*a nonpartisan, nonprofit journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters.)*

*-cw*

  - [  Previous Article **How NOT to Reform Government: A Statewide Initiative that Failed** ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14925:how-not-to-reform-government-a-statewide-initiative-that-failed&catid=312)
- [  Next Article **What If CA's Affordable Housing and Homeless Crises Were a Big Fat Lie?** ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14913:what-if-ca-s-affordable-housing-and-homeless-crises-were-a-big-fat-lie&catid=312)
<div data-id="1" 
	class="eb-inst eb-hide eb-emailform eb-1 eboxContentLocker"
	data-options='{"trigger":"onPageLoad","trigger_selector":"","delay":3000,"early_trigger":true,"scroll_depth":"percentage","scroll_depth_value":80,"firing_frequency":1,"reverse_scroll_close":true,"threshold":0,"close_out_viewport":false,"exit_timer":1000,"idle_time":10000,"close_on_esc":false,"animation_open":"slideInDown","animation_close":"fadeOutDown","animation_duration":400,"disable_page_scroll":true,"test_mode":false,"debug":false,"ga_tracking":true,"ga_tracking_id":"G-P16BQ7X1SW","ga_tracking_event_category":"EngageBox","ga_tracking_event_label":"Box #1 - Global Email Signup Form","auto_focus":false}'
	data-type='popup'
	>

	<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-outside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>
	<div class="eb-dialog eb-formVer" role="dialog" aria-modal="true" id="dialog1" aria-label="dialog1">
		
		<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-inside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>	
		<div class="eb-container">
						<div class="eb-content">
				
<form action="https://citywatchla.us2.list-manage.com/subscribe/post?u=34d69f33624fd058ee9b56516&amp;id=4bfa422f51&amp;f_id=00d6c2e1f0" class="eb" method="post" id="mcform-1" name="mcform-1" target="_blank">
			<div class="eb-form-header"><p><img src="/images/2023/06/be-a-city-watcher.png" alt="be a city watcher" width="350" height="97" loading="lazy" data-path="local-images:/2023/06/be-a-city-watcher.png"></p>
<p>Sign up to receive our special e-news blasts on Monday and Thursday evenings!</p></div>
	
					<div class="eb-field-row">

			
			
			
			<input class="eb-input" type="email" name="EMAIL"  placeholder="Email address"  id="EMAIL" value="" required>

			
		</div>
										
	<div class="eb-footer">
    	<button class="eb-btn" type="submit" name="subscribe" style="background-color:rgba(93, 183, 93, 1);color:rgba(255, 255, 255, 1)">
    		Sign up    	</button>
    </div>
</form>			</div>
		</div>
	</div>	
</div>
<div data-id="3" 
	class="eb-inst eb-hide eb-yesno eb-3 "
	data-options='{"trigger":"onScrollDepth","trigger_selector":"","delay":0,"early_trigger":false,"scroll_depth":"percentage","scroll_depth_value":80,"firing_frequency":2,"reverse_scroll_close":false,"threshold":0,"close_out_viewport":false,"exit_timer":1000,"idle_time":1000,"close_on_esc":false,"animation_open":"fadeInUp","animation_close":"fadeOut","animation_duration":300,"disable_page_scroll":false,"test_mode":false,"debug":false,"ga_tracking":true,"ga_tracking_id":"G-P16BQ7X1SW","ga_tracking_event_category":"EngageBox","ga_tracking_event_label":"Box #3 - Yes \/ No Donation Popup Box","auto_focus":false}'
	data-type='popup'
	>

	<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-outside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>
	<div class="eb-dialog " role="dialog" aria-modal="true" id="dialog3" aria-label="dialog3">
		
		<button type="button" data-ebox-cmd="close" class="eb-close placement-inside" aria-label="Close">
	<img alt="close popup button" />
	<span aria-hidden="true">&times;</span>
</button>	
		<div class="eb-container">
						<div class="eb-content">
				
<div class="ebox-yes-no">
	<div class="ebox-yn-text">
		
		
		<div class="ebox-yn-headline" style="font-size:22px;color:#888888">
			<p>If you only give once a month, would you consider giving to CityWatch?</p>
<p>Your support fuels our mission to promote and facilitate civic engagement and neighborhood empowerment, and to hold area government and its politicians accountable.</p>
<p>Would you like to help? Even if you can only give $5, it will make a difference.</p>		</div>
			</div>
	
	<div class="ebox-ys-buttons" style="font-size: 16px;">
		
<a
					data-ebox-prevent="0"
		data-ebox-cmd="close"
				target="_self"
		href="https://www.citywatchla.com/donate"
		rel="noopener"
	
	
	
	
	class="ebox-ys-btn"
	style="background-color:#2ec664;color:#ffffff;min-width:100px">
	Yes
	</a>
<a
	
	
			data-ebox-cmd="close"
		href="#"
	
	
	class="ebox-ys-btn"
	style="background-color:#ef2345;color:#ffffff;min-width:100px">
	Not Right Now
	</a>	</div>

	</div>			</div>
		</div>
	</div>	
</div>