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[ ELECTION 2026 ](https://mail.citywatchla.com/election-2024)
# “Who Wins in 2026? Crystal Litz Handicaps the Big Races from LA City Hall to Capitol Hill”
October 31 2026
Written by Nick Antonicello.
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WESTSIDE - Crystal Litz is the founder and president of LP Campaigns, a full-service political and public affairs consulting practice based in Los Angeles. She is an experienced campaign strategist and tactician with a background in municipal, state legislative, and federal elections.
Litz has directed statewide ballot initiatives, legislative advocacy efforts, and candidate campaigns in more than 36 states, as well as international contests. Her expertise is judicial contests, and her firm has elected dozens of Superior Court judges here in Los Angeles. Litz has worked with labor unions, advocacy organizations, political parties, nonprofit organizations, and private businesses.
Given her broad depth of knowledge and experience, I asked her to handicap the top races on the ballot, Tuesday, November 3rd:
**CA. GOVERNOR: Xavier Becerra:**
Becerra. I don’t see this being close. There’s plenty to criticize about how California is being run, and Democrats ought to take those criticisms seriously. But Steve Hilton hasn’t made the case that he should be the one running it. Becerra has the numbers and the advantage of being a Democrat in California. I will say, I love the “try something new” ads. Great concept.
**CA. LT. GOVERNOR: Fiona Ma:**
Fiona Ma wins comfortably. She knows this state and has spent years building relationships in it. Gloria Romero is entitled to change parties. I just don’t think enough California voters are interested in going with her.
**CA. INSURANCE COMMISSIONER: Jane Kim:**
I voted for Ben Allen. We need an insurance commissioner who can protect consumers and make sure they can actually buy insurance. I think he’s better equipped to do that. But if you’re asking me who wins, I’m worried it may be Kim. My sense is that Northern California does a better job rallying around its statewide candidates than we do down here in LA. Allen has a slight lead in the latest poll, so I’d be very happy to be wrong about this one.
**CA. STATE SENATE DISTRICT #24: Brian Goldsmith:**
I’m firmly with Goldsmith. I think he wins because his appeal extends beyond the people who agree with him on absolutely everything. You need that in this district. And when John Heilman and Lauren Meister endorsed Brian over someone they served with, I pay attention. They know John Erickson’s work firsthand. This is a must win for pragmatic moderates.
**LOS ANGELES MAYOR: Karen Bass:**
I think Bass pulls it out, but barely. I’m not going to defend every decision she’s made. She has given voters legitimate reasons to be unhappy. But being unhappy with Karen Bass doesn’t necessarily mean you want Nithya Raman to be mayor. Bass has closed the gap as voters have taken a harder look at that choice. I think she gets there. I think we could be waiting a while for the result. But I will also say Rick Caruso made a mistake by not running. He could have taken this thing. Voters wanted a better choice. The two they have are uninspiring.
**LA CITY ATTORNEY: Marissa Roy:**
I want John McKinney’s experience in that office, and I want public safety to be taken seriously. That should not be a controversial position for a Democrat. But I can’t ignore numbers I don’t like. Roy has the polling advantage. There are still a lot of undecided voters, and McKinney has a chance to win them. If I have to call it today, I give Roy the edge. I’d much rather be wrong. McKinney has my vote and my strong support.
**LA COUNTY SHERIFF: Robert Luna:**
Luna. I don’t think voters want to do the Villanueva years again. That doesn’t mean Luna gets a pass on the jails, oversight or anything else that needs fixing. He doesn’t. But Villanueva has to give people a reason to put him back in charge after they voted him out. I don’t think he’s done that.
**LA COUNTY JUDICIAL RACES:**
Office 65: Anna Slotky Reitano\*
Office 87: David DeJute\*
Office 131: Donna Tryfman\*
\*Disclosure: All three judicial candidates are clients of LP Campaigns.
Litz believes the big picture at the federal level is that Democrats take back the House of Representatives but fall short in regaining the US Senate.
Litz, who is blunt speaking and does not mince words believes Democrats need to have what she described as a "very real conversation about the DSA and what it is doing to national Democrats and our local party here in Los Angeles."
*(**Nick Antonicello** is a thirty-three-year resident of Venice who has covered the numerous city, county and statewide races on this November ballot. A regular contributor to LA City Watch, you can reach him via e-mail at )*
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